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Oil targets $112 on expected demand increase

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March 19, 2012 • Reprints

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 03/19/12

KEY TERMS
OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation and close below on 03/15/12 @ 124.63 Downside Targets = 120.81-119.63.
  • C>HOLB. Possible confirmation of bottom with a range violation @ 126.17.  Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 126.17 or higher. Upside Target = 133.01-133.28.
  • After getting slaughtered on Thursday by the White House SPR report May Brent makes a strong comeback and settles on the highest close in 2012 @ 125.81.
  • Since the economy is growing strong by all reports and everyone has plenty of money to spend taking out the 2012 high @ 127.01 should project the weekly range to be achieved topping out around 130.48.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.01
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.17
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51

CLK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 105.37. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/15/12 @ 105.37 or lower. Downside Target = 102.47-101.60.
  • C>HOLB. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 107.35. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 107.35 or higher. Upside Targets = 112.30-112.68.
  • May WTI makes a strong recovery on the week climbing to a 10-month high on speculation that fuel demand will increase with the economic rebound in the U.S. 
  • Trading the full weekly range should project to 110.69 and chase down the 2012 high @ 110.55.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.17
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.45
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26

NGJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 2.339. Upside Targets = 2.542. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 03/16/12 @ 2.345 or higher. Upside Target = 2.542.
  • June Nat Gas sets the low for the week on Tuesday the 13th with the OVB low @ 2.204 and ends up closing on the high of the week.
  • Continue to sell all rallies with the next leg down making a move under $2.00.
  • 2012 Q2 Extreme Downside Target 1.799.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0943
  • Projected Weekly Range: .222
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690

METALS

GCJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top on 03/14/12 with a range violation @ 1663.30 and a close below. Downside Targets 1648.90-1612.20. Extreme Projected Downside 1566.10.
  • 2nd inside day. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1682.90. Possible confirmation of a bottom on a close @ 1682.90 or higher.
  • April Gold erases half of its gains in 2012 on reports gold traders are the least bullish in the last 2 months on speculation the strengthening U.S. economy will curtail the Federal Reserve from buying more debt.
  • Everything still points down for now to our Extreme Target @ 1566.10 – 1528.10.
  • Projected Daily Range: 34.80
  • Projected Weekly Range: 80.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 176.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top on 02/29/12 with a close below @ 1.3355. Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation 03/16/12 @ 1.3121. Upside Target 1.3294-1.3315.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3188 or higher.  Upside Target = 1.3380-1.3472.
  • After setting 4-week lows the June Euro closes Friday on the high of the week.
  • The current retracement to the upside could very well be short lived. This market is heading lower in short order to 1.2185. Our last confirmation of a top on 02/29/12 missed the Extreme Target by 4 ticks on a 290 tick move. 
  • Projected Daily Range: .0111
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0228
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom on 03/09/12 with a range violation @ 1360.25 and a confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1360.25 or higher while closing @ 1360.50. Upside Target = 1395.25-1404.50.
  • VRCB day. June S&P’s rose for the 5th straight week as the Federal Reserve raised its assessment of the economy and lets banks such as JP Morgan boost dividends after reviewing their financial strength.
  • Weekly range is 147% achieved and appears to chase our next upside target @ 1405.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 9.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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