Stock indexes face resistance after expiration

Quarterly expiration today is almost always to the buy side. SPM testing the 1400 handle and Russell 2000 continues to hold below multiple tops. It will be interesting to see if equities can continue to climb after expiration with the sharp move in treasuries this week. Guess is it will be difficult and we will continue to monitor the small caps as they cannot make new highs in R2. SPM has 1393.50 as initial support and 1384 as initial pivot pt support. SPM has internal trend line at 1383; see chart above. Eurostoxx holding above its .618 retracement of the major move of 2498 and is positive above for now. This is also the broken trend line which becomes internal trend line now.

TY versus SP is breaking the Pivot Point support using the significant top in the cross from 2011. TLT has 110.62 as its .382 retracement from the 2010 low and pivotal support area.

EUR/USD tested first key resistance yesterday and faltered a bit, but is mixed for now. Perhaps a move above a short term trend line at 1.3132 in spot is needed for upside momentum of some sort. A close above 1.3141 in March future turns positive. US$ Index has 81.00 as its .786 potential reversal resistance. AUD/USD is positive now after holding 200-day.

Market Sentiment

CONTRACT / SECTOR

THEME POS / NEG

POSITION STAGE

TARGET / KEY PTS

STOCK INDICES US

Positive

IWM wedge formation

1440 SPX**

US TREASURIES

Negative at key

10 year yield 2.25%

USM 135-15

CRUDE WTI/BRENT

Positive

Brent 126.94* key

April WTI 103.39*

METALS

Copper

Gold at 200 day avg

Copper 3.96*

CURRENCIES

EURUSD mixed

Cover Long US$

Positive AUDUSD

GRAINS

Sell SN 13.96

Corn and Wheat firm

May Corn 6.60**

 

About the Author
David Wienke runs Triquetra Resources Ltd. in Riverside, Ill. (www.triquetraresources.com).
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