Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 03/16/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation and close below on 03/15/12 @ 124.63 Downside Targets = 121.01-119.98.
- Brent falls 3.26 in less than 5 minutes on reports that President Obama discussed a release of the U.S. Strategic Reserve with U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron.
- After making a huge recovery on the day and closing above the mid-range Friday should continue to work lower. Weekly range is 92% achieved.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.74
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.51
CLJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 105.37. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/15/12 @ 105.37 or lower. Downside Target = 102.47-101.60.
- April Crude falls with the same report on U.S. Strategic Reserve release only to make a strong rally after the White House denied a deal was in place and a positive jobs benefits report and closing above the mid-range.
- Trading the full weekly range projects to 102.44. Taking out last week’s VRCB low at 104.35 confirms a top with a range violation on an intermediate time interval with downside targets @ 98.67-98.30.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.99
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.26
NGJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 2.339. Upside Targets = 2.438-2.500. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.203. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.345 or higher.
- Nat Gas continues to show signs of weakness as reports today forecasted above normal temperatures across the country for the next 90-days. Recent reports have shown that come July 2012 storage facilities will be at 100% capacity unless the U.S. has above normal summer to offset supplies. 2012 Q2 Extreme Downside Target 1.799.
- Projected Daily Range: .0111
- Projected Weekly Range: .253
- Projected Monthly Range: .690
METALS
GCJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/14/12 with a range violation @ 1663.30 and a close below. Downside Targets 1648.90-1612.20. Extreme Projected Downside 1566.10.
- Gold made a little recovery today and managed to close right on Wednesday’s mid-range. A close below 1663.40 should continue to move this market lower.
- Projected Daily Range: 41.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 73.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 176.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- OVB day. Confirmation of a top on 02/29/12 with a range violation and close below @ 1.3355. Downside Target = 1.3027 achieved 03/14/12. Extreme Downside Target 1.2943
- After setting 4-week lows the Euro made a strong recovery in the last half of the day amid strong U. S. economic data.
- Projected Daily Range: .0112
- Projected Weekly Range: .0267
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on 03/09/12 with a range violation @ 1360.25 and a confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1360.25 or higher while closing @ 1360.50. Upside Target = 1395.25-1404.50.
- The S&P’s tops 1400 for the first time in almost 4 years as data showed manufacturing in the New York region unexpectedly increased and jobless claims declined.
- Weekly range is 140% achieved and appears to chase our next upside target @ 1404.50. A close above 1400 tomorrow could signal a continued power move over the next couple of weeks towards our Extreme Projected Target @ 1450.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 26.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
