Natural gas weakness continues as summer storage projected at 100% capacity

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 03/16/12

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar



  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation and close below on 03/15/12 @ 124.63 Downside Targets = 121.01-119.98.
  • Brent falls 3.26 in less than 5 minutes on reports that President Obama discussed a release of the U.S. Strategic Reserve with U.K. Prime Minister  David Cameron.
  • After making a huge recovery on the day and closing above the mid-range Friday should continue to work lower. Weekly range is 92% achieved.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.74
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51


  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 105.37. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/15/12 @ 105.37 or lower. Downside Target = 102.47-101.60.  
  • April Crude falls with the same report on U.S. Strategic Reserve release only to make a strong rally after the White House denied a deal was in place and a positive jobs benefits report and closing above the mid-range.
  • Trading the full weekly range projects to 102.44. Taking out last week’s VRCB low at 104.35 confirms a top with a range violation on an intermediate time interval with downside targets @ 98.67-98.30.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.99
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26


  • Short Term Trends are bearish
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 2.339. Upside Targets = 2.438-2.500. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.203. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.345 or higher.
  • Nat Gas continues to show signs of weakness as reports today forecasted above normal temperatures across the country for the next 90-days. Recent reports have shown that come July 2012 storage facilities will be at 100% capacity unless the U.S. has above normal summer to offset supplies. 2012 Q2 Extreme Downside Target 1.799.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0111
  • Projected Weekly Range: .253
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690

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