Indexes end mixed Wednesday as NYSE volume shrinks

Stocks struggle for direction at highs

Market Snapshot for session ending 3-14-12:

 

Last

Day Change

%Change

S&P 500 Index

1394.28

-1.67

-.12%

Dow Jones Industrials

13194.10

+16.42

+.12%

NASDAQ Composite

3040.73

+.85

+.03%

Value Line Arithmetic Index

3043.98

-20.64

-.67%

Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Positive

Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Positive

Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive / Neutral

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Major indexes rally to new short to intermediate-term highs Wednesday before closing mixed with Dow Industrials and NASDAQ up slightly and S&P 500 and Value Line Index down slightly.
  • Short and Intermediate-term trends remain positive.
  • Total Volume on NYSE shrank Wednesday by just under 6%, but average NYSE share price rose to $61.01 from $60.62.
  • Cumulative Volume in S&P 500 and S&P Emini futures was flat Wednesday while remaining well below plot levels of May 2011.
  • Daily Most Actives (MAAD) was marginally positive Wednesday by 11 to 9 with Daily MAAD rallying to new short to intermediate-term high. Daily MAAD Ratio at 1.30 was moving higher from “Neutral.” Weekly MAAD Ratio remains “Overbought.”
  • CPFL was positive Wednesday by 2.07 to 1 and hit new short-term high, but neither Daily nor Weekly CPFL has been able to rally above defined downtrend line stretching back to 2011 highs let alone actual 2011 indicator highs.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • Elimination of possible Key Reversal Day pattern Tuesday that was put in place in S&P 500 and Dow 30 on February 29 is indication eventual market reversal will likely come at higher level. 
  • Fact that short-term Momentum did not confirm strength by indexes to new highs is indication market’s weak internal dynamics persist and that, despite gains, market is losing upward momentum.
  • Market is also “Overbought” on both Minor and Intermediate Cycles based on price. More esoteric indicator like Daily MAAD Ratio that relies on Smart Money advance/decline inputs was last rising from “Neutral” to suggest market may have more room to move on upside before getting short-term “Overbought” again via Daily MAAD Ratio. Weekly MAAD Ratio remains “Overbought.”
  • Despite strength in S&P 500 and S&P Emini and even strength to new intermediate-term highs in Cumulative Volume, CV in neither issue is anywhere near exceeding plot highs of May 2011.
Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly
 

3/12

3/13

3/14

3/15

3/16

3/16

3/31

S&P 500 Index

SELL1372.40

SELL1371.12

SELL1368.31

SELL1368.17

SELL1369.04

SELL1286.13

SELL1189.77

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL13012.25

SELL13002.83

SELL12975.90

SELL12965.59

SELL12962.10

SELL12401.55

SELL11271.99

NASDAQ Composite

BUY2954.73

BUY2945.86

BUY2941.30

BUY2941.48

BUY2946.38

SELL2722.39

SELL2517.37

Value Line Index

BUY3028.52

BUY3014.17

BUY2999.85

BUY2994.22

BUY2996.13

SELL2800.70

SELL2612.10

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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