Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 03/15/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation and close above on 03/08/12 @ 124.46. Upside Targets = 128.17-130.42. Possible confirmation of a top on a range violation @ 124.63. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 124.63 or lower. Downside Targets = 121.88-120.54.
- After Brent set the highest close in 2012 on Tuesday @ 106.22 Iran’s oil minister played down prospects of war and denied his country was losing income due to sanctions.
- We should be looking at a short term sell-off and then continue to our upside targets with the current bull market unless we violate 120.49.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.87
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.51
CLJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 105.37. Downside Target = 102.47-101.60. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 105.37 or lower.
- April Crude falls after stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, climbed to the highest level in nine months and Saudi Arabia pledged to make up any shortage.
- Trading the full weekly range projects to 102.44. Taking out last week’s VRCB low at 104.35 confirms a top with a range violation on an intermediate time interval with downside targets @ 98.67-98.30.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.92
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.26
NGJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 2.339. Upside Targets = 2.438-2.500. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.345 or higher.
- Although Nat Gas tried to make a recovery after setting a 10-Year low on Tuesday @ 2.204 the upside appears to be limited. Recent reports have shown that come July 2012 storage facilities will be at 100% capacity unless the U.S. has above normal summer to offset supplies. Q2 2012 Extreme Downside Target 1.799.
- Projected Daily Range: .0960
- Projected Weekly Range: .253
- Projected Monthly Range: .690
METALS
GCJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/14/12 with a range violation @ 1663.30 and a close below. Downside Targets 1648.90-1612.20. CATASTROPHIC LOW 1566.10.
- Gold continues its fall after the FED announced Tuesday it won’t extend U.S. Monetary Stimulus. Regardless of all the reports about fund managers aggressively buying gold the big money always makes the market dance to its tune. The beauty about technical analysis is you won’t be left behind and fundamentals make it impossible to handicap price action.
- After closing in the lower 20% of the range it appears our CATO number will come into play. Weekly range 113% achieved.
- Projected Daily Range: 38.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 73.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 176.10
CURRENCIES
ECH12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 02/29/12 with a range violation and close below @ 1.3355. Downside Target = 1.3027 achieved 03/14/12. Extreme Downside Target 1.2943
- The Euro was not match for the U.S. Dollar after the Federal Reserve raised its outlook for U.S. growth, reducing expectations the central bank will begin a third round of bond purchases.
- A couple of weeks ago on 02/24/12 you saw the high of the retracement and we are heading south towards our Intermediate Downside Targets 1.2185-1.2153.
- Projected Daily Range: .0100
- Projected Weekly Range: .0267
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on 03/09/12 with a range violation @ 1360.25 and a confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1360.25 or higher while closing @ 1360.50. Upside Target = 1395.25-1404.50.
- The June S&P’s traded to a high on Wednesday @ 1394.25 (4 ticks from our target) before falling the last 2 hours of the session and closing down on the day. Weekly range is 128% achieved.
- Our 2012 Q1 Upside Target @1383.50 was achieved on 03/13/12. Check our website for 2011 Q4 Upside Target where we forecasted the high within 3 ticks.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 26.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
