Brent oil sell off expected after highest close in 2012

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 03/15/12

KEY TERMS
OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation and close above on 03/08/12 @ 124.46. Upside Targets = 128.17-130.42. Possible confirmation of a top on a range violation @ 124.63. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 124.63 or lower. Downside Targets = 121.88-120.54.
  • After Brent set the highest close in 2012 on Tuesday @ 106.22 Iran’s oil minister played down prospects of war and denied his country was losing income due to sanctions.
  • We should be looking at a short term sell-off and then continue to our upside targets with the current bull market unless we violate 120.49.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.87
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51

CLJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 105.37. Downside Target = 102.47-101.60. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 105.37 or lower.
  • April Crude falls after stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, climbed to the highest level in nine months and Saudi Arabia pledged to make up any shortage.
  • Trading the full weekly range projects to 102.44. Taking out last week’s VRCB low at 104.35 confirms a top with a range violation on an intermediate time interval with downside targets @ 98.67-98.30. 
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.92
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26

NGJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 2.339. Upside Targets = 2.438-2.500. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.345 or higher.
  • Although Nat Gas tried to make a recovery after setting a 10-Year low on Tuesday @ 2.204 the upside appears to be limited. Recent reports have shown that come July 2012 storage facilities will be at 100% capacity unless the U.S. has above normal summer to offset supplies. Q2 2012 Extreme Downside Target 1.799.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0960
  • Projected Weekly Range: .253
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690
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