Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 03/14/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation and close above on 03/08/12 @ 124.46. Upside Targets 128.17-130.42.
- Brent set in the highest close in 2012 @ 106.22 by 2 ticks taking out the highs the last three days on positive U.S. sales.
- After all the negative news out of China yesterday the technical picture keeps you in the game and looking to continue to our upside targets.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.51
CLJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation and close above on 03/09/12 @ 107.21. Upside Target 110.71-112.30.
- April Crude rises on retails sales increasing the most in 5 months signaling strong growth and high demand.
- Look for crude to move towards the closed ranges @ 109.95 – 110.55 after taking out last week’s high @ 108.20.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.98
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.26
NGJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish
- OVB day and closed in the upper 30% of the range.
- Confirmation of a top on a range violation was 02/22/12 @ 2.669 and a confirmation of a top on a close below was 02/27/12 @ 2.669. Downside Target 2.161. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.339. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.339 or higher. Upside Targets 2.438-2.500.
- Nat Gas set another 10-Year low today @ 2.204 achieving our Extreme Downside Target @ 2.223 by 104% and making a strong rally after 12;00 on short covering.
- Sell all rallies as we are still expecting to see our Q1 Downside Objective @ 2.161. Q2 2012 Extreme Downside Target 1.799.
- Projected Daily Range: .085
- Projected Weekly Range: .253
- Projected Monthly Range: .690
METALS
GCJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on 03/09/12 with a range violation @ 1709.90 and with a close @ 1711.50 or higher. Upside Target 1715.40-1725.90. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1665.00. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1665.00 or lower. Downside Targets 1648.90-1612.20. CATASTROPHIC LOW 1566.10.
- Gold takes a $22 dive shortly after 2:00CST on speculation the FED won’t extend U.S. Monetary Stimulus.
- Look for our full weekly range to come into play and a close below last week’s low should accelerate to downward price action.
- Projected Daily Range: 36.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 73.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 176.10
CURRENCIES
ECH12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Big OVB down day on a 140 point range closing in the lower 23%.
- Confirmation of a top on 02/29/12 with a range violation and close below @ 1.3355. Downside Target = 1.3027
- The 17-nation euro fell against its 16 major counterparts as a European Central Bank council member said they are discussing ways to withdraw some of the emergency cash they injected into the banking system.
- A couple of weeks ago you saw the high of the retracement and we are heading south towards our Intermediate Downside Targets 1.2185-1.2153.
- Projected Daily Range: .0133
- Projected Weekly Range: .0267
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
ESM12: ROLL
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on 03/09/12 with a range violation @ 1360.25 and a confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1360.25 or higher while closing @ 1360.50. Upside Target = 1395.25-1404.50.
- The June S&P’s soared today on the strongest retails sales figures in the past 5 months taking it to the highest level since June 2008 chasing the 1400 threshold.
- Our 2012 Q1 Upside Target @1383.50 was achieved on 03/13/12. Check our website for 2011 Q4 Upside Target where we forecasted the high within 3 ticks.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 26.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
