Oil falls as Iran concerns eased; nat gas trading at 47:1 ratio to WTI

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 03/13/12

KEY TERMS
OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 124.19. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 124.19 or lower
  • Brent moved modestly lower after China announced its February trade deficit was the largest in 22 years.
  • Unless we get a confirmation of a top we are still looking at Upside Targets at 132.63-133.39.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51

CLJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 105.37. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 105.37 or lower.
  • April Crude closed down on the day just below the mid-range as large speculators and hedge funds cut positions on rising oil prices as concern erased about risk tied to Iran. 
  • Look for crude to try and make a serious move towards the closed ranges @ 109.95 – 110.55 unless the confirmations are triggered.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.87
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26

NGJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Our last confirmation of a top was 02/27/12 @ 2.669.
  • Nat Gas was able to move a little lower today closing right on the mid-range with our Extreme Downside Target @ 2.223 now 98% achieved.      
  • This market is poised to continue lower to go after our Q1 Downside Objective of 2.161 and may even have its eyes set even lower going into Q2 2012.  Stay tuned for our downside target under $2.00.
  • An interesting point to note with the benchmark conversion between Natural Gas & WTI used for years at 6:1.  Current ratio 47:1.  European Natural Gas trades around $12 and Japan $16.
  • Projected Daily Range: .074
  • Projected Weekly Range: .253
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690

METALS

GCJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Gold triggered confirmations Friday of a bottom with a range violation @ 1709.90 and with a close @ 1711.50 or higher.
  • Gold traders are the most bullish in four months after investors accumulated more metal than ever and hedge funds raised their bets on gains to five-month highs.
  • Look for our full range to be in with the Projected Upside Target @ 1766.50 for the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 28.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 73.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 176.10

CURRENCIES

ECH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Our last confirmation of a top was 02/29/12 @ 1.3350.
  • The world’s biggest banks are less pessimistic about the Euro as the European Central Bank provides unlimited cash to the regions financial system, Germany may avoid recession and Greece looks to complete the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history.
  • After making a 200 point run last Wednesday and Thursday to 1.3291 the Euro traded below our downside target @ 1.3100 established 2 weeks back ag. Last week’s retracement @ 1.3292 was exactly 50% to-the-tick off the 02/24/12 high.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0138
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0267
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • 2nd VRCB day. The S&P triggered Confirmations Friday of a bottom with a range violation @ 1366.00 and a Confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1366.50 or higher while closing @ 1372.50. Upside Target = 1395.25.
  • The March S&P’s was little changed as investors weighed whether a Chinese slowdown will lead to an easing of monetary policy for the world’s second largest economy. This market is flat running out of gas.
  • Looks like our Q1 Upside Target @1383.50 is going to make it before the end of the month.
  • Projected Daily Range: 12.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 26.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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