Oil boosted by payroll targets $112, euro remains bearish

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 03/12/12

KEY TERMS
OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

We highly recommended you pay close attention to our Ranges listed on Daily, Weekly and Monthly Projections for each market. The overall view of the immediate price action will prove to be a valuable asset with the confirmations and targets.

ENERGIES

BRNJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Friday Brent closed @ 125.98 putting in a Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 124.46 and a Confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 125.34 or higher. Upside Target = 132.63-133.39.
  • April Brent Crude moved higher again on Friday as oil futures made new highs for the week and is settling at its second highest level of the year @ 125.98 with the previous high 03/01/12 @ 106.20.
  • Look for Brent to continue its move higher after posting its sixth week in seven gains in conjunction with positive news from Greece successfully closing its bond offer to creditors.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.23
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51

CLJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • WTI put in a VRCB week. Friday WTI triggered both confirmations @ 107.21 closing on the high for the week @ 107.40. Upside Targets = 112.30 – 112.68
  • April Crude was able to post another modest gain Friday after U.S. employer’s boosted payroll more than forecast.
  • Look for crude to try and make a serious move towards the closed ranges @ 109.95 – 110.55 this week and continue towards our upside targets.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.88
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26

NGJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • VRCB week. Nat Gas appeared to have some short covering ahead of the weekend.  Our last confirmation of a top was 02/27/12 @ 2.669. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.336. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.336 or higher.  Upside Targets 2.438-2.461 and short lived with low probability.
  • Nat Gas was able to move a little higher on Friday after setting contract lows @ 2.231 on Thursday and we are continuing to sell all rallies.     
  • This market is poised to continue lower to go after our Q1 Downside Objective of 2.161 and may even have its eyes set even lower going into Q2 2012.  Stay tuned for our downside target under $2.00.
  • Projected Daily Range: .076
  • Projected Weekly Range: .253
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690

METALS

GCJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • OVB day. Gold is mounting a charge and as we posted in the Friday morning report both confirmations were triggered @ 1709.90 with the close @ 1711.50.
  • Gold traders are the most bullish in four months after investors accumulated more metal than ever and hedge funds raised their bets on gains to five-month highs.
  • Look for our full range to be in with the Projected Upside Target @ 1785.30 for the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 73.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 176.10

CURRENCIES

ECH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • C < LOHB generated Friday and a VRCB week. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3106. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3106 or lower.  Downside Target 1.3004 – 1.2933
  • The Euro made a crash dive Friday with the U.S. Dollar making a 10-month high versus the Yen as a report showed U.S. job growth during the past six months was the strongest since 2006.
  • Look for the Euro to make a run towards 1.2975 and reverse the Short Term trend to bearish and chase down our Q1 Downside Target @ 1.2153.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0135
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0267
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • VRCB day. Friday put in a Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1366.00 and a Confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1366.50 or higher while closing @ 1372.50. Upside Target = 1395.25.
  • The March S&P’s moved higher again Friday closing on the high for the week and capping off the fourth weekly rally after the government reported stronger-than-forecasted payroll growth bolstered optimism in the world’s largest economy.
  • Looks like our Q1 Upside Target @1383.50 is going to make it before the end of the month.
  • Projected Daily Range: 14.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 26.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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