Last week May Corn opened at 654 and closed the week at 645. The week low came in at 631¾. Technically the market is in no trend with ADX at 17. Corn has been in a range since late-January between 660-630. MACD is just below the signal line with no divergence, and Stocahstics are mid-range and are now pointing up.
Last week’s WASDE release showed projected world corn stocks down 800,000 tons from last month. From U.S. corn seed purchases, it is being reported that the U.S. corn acreage will be the largest in history at 94 million acres, the March 30 Perspective Plantings report will help confirm this.
May soybeans opened last week at 1330 and closed the week at 1337¾. Technically, the market is in a very strong uptrend, with ADX at 70, which started mid January as the market moved up away from 1180 and finally broke 1240 early February. At Trend in Futures we are currently managing $3,200 in open trade equity in a long taken in February.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
On the weekly chart, we see Commercials on the Legacy report net short -169,087 contracts in corn. That is far from the net short position we saw on Dec. 23 at -36,487 contracts, a 52-week high. We saw corn the week earlier hit a low of 5.70. The more transparent Disaggregated report shows Producers (true commercials) net short -439,856 contracts, Swap Dealers net long 270,769 contracts, and Managed Money net long 255,804. Posturing for higher corn prices.
On the weekly chart you see on the Legacy report the Commercials are net short -126,897 contracts in soybeans. Going back to the report on Nov. 28, Commercials were net long 28,178 contracts and soybeans hit a weekly low of 1102¾. In the Disaggregated report yu can see that Producers are net short -246,590, Swap Dealers are net long 119,693, and Managed Money are net long 140,013. The posturing for higher soybean prices started early December.
Last week’s WASDE showed global oilseed ending stocks down 3.4 million tons from last month. U.S. soybean supply and use projection for 2011/12 were mostly unchanged. 2012 shows little change in acreage from last year.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
Corn fundamental outlook — Short-term bullish — Corn prices continue to firm on South American weather concerns and after the USDA cut its global production, and U.S. and global ending stocks estimates for 2011/12. While current supplies are tight, the supply situation looks more plentiful for this summer, which may keep a longer-term damper on prices. The current corn 2011-12 stocks/use ratios are very tight with the U.S. at a 16-year low 6.3% and the world at 14.4%.
Soybean fundamental outlook — Short-term bullish — Soybean prices continue to rally on supply concerns after the USDA raised its U.S. soybean export forecast because of the South American drought and strong demand from China. The stocks-to-ratios are near average with the 2011-12 U.S. stocks/use ratio at 9.1% and the global ratio at 23.4%.
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