Technicals point to lower Treasuries

If you take out the employment report today and just look at technicals; TY/SP coming off from major resistance — 30 year vs. SP is at its 200-day avg, close below 140-12 in USM would turn momentum lower in treasuries. R2 spot has 788 and 811.50 as break out levels. Eurodollar spreads are pointing towards lower Treasuries.

The Russell 2000 spot index is the cleanest of the charts. Use 811.50 and 788 as pivotal technical levels with break out potential on either side of these. SPM has 1363/64 as short term potential reversal resistance (1370 in SPX). Upside swing above these would see 1381.50 in SPX long term major resistance. 13,130 major resistance in DJI. Russell versus SP holding .618 support and R2 vs QQQ holding .786 potential reversal support.

The 10-year future is holding above its .618 retracement of short term rally going into employment report today. Use this 130-25/18 area as pivotal today. 30-year bond is holding above two key levels of support ahead of employment 140-17 (.786 s/t) and 140-12 is the closing pivot pt; see pages two and three. 30 year versus SP is hovering at its 200 day moving average, but TY/SP has been faltering from its major pivot pt resistance.

Market Sentiment

CONTRACT / SECTOR

THEME POS / NEG

POSITION STAGE

TARGET / KEY PTS

STOCK INDICES US

Mixed/Positive

SPM 1363/64 initial key

R2000 spot 788*

US TREASURIES

Negative/Mixed

USM 140-12 key close

TYM 130-18/25*

CRUDE WTI/BRENT

Mixed/Positive

Brent 124.50 initial key

April WTI 103.39*

METALS

Positive

Gold at 200 day avg

Copper 3.72 close*

CURRENCIES

Neg EURUSD

Long US$

AUDUSD neg

GRAINS

USDA today

Wheat hits trend resist

Beans above keys

 

If you take out the employment report today and just look at technicals; TY/SP coming off from major resistance — 30 year vs. SP is at its 200-day avg, close below 140-12 in USM would turn momentum lower in treasuries. R2 spot has 788 and 811.50 as break out levels. Eurodollar spreads are pointing towards lower Treasuries.

The Russell 2000 spot index is the cleanest of the charts. Use 811.50 and 788 as pivotal technical levels with break out potential on either side of these. SPM has 1363/64 as short term potential reversal resistance (1370 in SPX). Upside swing above these would see 1381.50 in SPX long term major resistance. 13,130 major resistance in DJI. Russell versus SP holding .618 support and R2 vs QQQ holding .786 potential reversal support.

The 10-year future is holding above its .618 retracement of short term rally going into employment report today. Use this 130-25/18 area as pivotal today. 30-year bond is holding above two key levels of support ahead of employment 140-17 (.786 s/t) and 140-12 is the closing pivot pt; see pages two and three. 30 year versus SP is hovering at its 200 day moving average, but TY/SP has been faltering from its major pivot pt resistance.

Market Sentiment

CONTRACT / SECTOR

THEME POS / NEG

POSITION STAGE

TARGET / KEY PTS

STOCK INDICES US

Mixed/Positive

SPM 1363/64 initial key

R2000 spot 788*

US TREASURIES

Negative/Mixed

USM 140-12 key close

TYM 130-18/25*

CRUDE WTI/BRENT

Mixed/Positive

Brent 124.50 initial key

April WTI 103.39*

METALS

Positive

Gold at 200 day avg

Copper 3.72 close*

CURRENCIES

Neg EURUSD

Long US$

AUDUSD neg

GRAINS

USDA today

Wheat hits trend resist

Beans above keys

 

About the Author
David Wienke runs Triquetra Resources Ltd. in Riverside, Ill. (www.triquetraresources.com).
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