Gold pumps brakes on freefall, oil turns bullish

Gold downside target still looms

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 03/08/12

KEY TERMS
OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 124.46. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 124.46 or higher.
  • April Brent Crude reversed course Wednesday, generating its highest close of the week as it looks to push back higher and go after its Weekly Upside Objective of 127.73.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.42
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.14
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51

CLJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • New low made today on current move @ 104.35. Downside Target already over 105% achieved
  • April Crude followed in Brent’s footsteps today, reversing its daily close indicator back to bullish after a smaller than expected build in inventories led the market back higher today.
  • Overall sentiment is still cautiously bullish at these levels but with positive economic news continuing to unfold, the upside remains the Short Term play.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.32
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.52
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26

NGJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • New contract lows made today @ 2.381. Downside Target @ 2.271 is 95% achieved.
  • Nat Gas broke through to new lows Wednesday as it approaches our Q1 downside objective of 2.161.
  • Before it can get there though, it will first have to break through the 01/27/12 weekly OVB low @ 2.231 from where the market garnered quite a bit of support and rallied to near $3.
  • Projected Daily Range: .077
  • Projected Weekly Range: .297
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690

METALS

GCJ12:

  • Short Term Range Trend is bearish. Short Term Closed Trend is bullish.
  • VRCB generated today. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1709.90. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1709.90 or higher.
  • April Gold seemed to pump the breaks on the free-fall from Tuesday, trading in a very tight range as it seems to be attracting a few buyers at the recent discounted price.
  • The fall in gold may well not be over just yet however, downside targets still loom nearby @ 1639.70 – 1612.20.
  • Projected Daily Range: 29.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 66.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 176.10

CURRENCIES

ECH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • VRCB generated today making new lows on current move @ 1.3096. Downside Target @ 1.3100 over 100% achieved.
  • The Euro was able to hit the downside target almost to the tick today before generating a DAILY VRCB and reversing its close indicator from bearish to bullish.
  • If Wednesday’s high is violated, a possible move back to 1.3315 may occur before another round of selling begins to go after new 2012 lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0092
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0305
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • Range Trend is bearish. Closed Trend is bullish.
  • Inside day on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1366.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1366.00 or higher.
  • The March S&P’s moved back higher today on positive economic reports and also coming from very oversold intraday levels following Tuesday’s massive selloff.
  • Unless the S&P’s can close above Wednesday’s high, the bias in this market remains the same that a serious correction is still necessary for this market to move solidly higher.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 23.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.50

 

About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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