Natural gas moving toward 10-year lows

Markets searching for bottoms

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 03/07/12

KEY TERMS
OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation@ 122.48. Confirmation of a top with a close @ 121.98 or lower. Upside Target already over 115% achieved.
  • o April Brent Crude spent its entire session moving lower Tuesday after opening on the day's high as it followed the rest of the risk markets lower today.
  • o Brent should find solid support @ 120.01 and will further confirm an eventual move back higher as long as it does not generate a weekly close below 119.21.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.61
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.14
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51 

CLJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 104.83 or lower. Downside Target @ 105.07 already over 100% achieved.
  • o April Crude broke lower today to make new 2 week lows and reverse the Short Term  trend from bullish to bearish.
  • o Crude may have just ran the stops below the past few week's lows that have provided Short Term support for this market but a more clear intermediate term picture will be painted on the close of trading this Friday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.66
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.52
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26

 NGJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • New contract lows made today @ 2.339. Downside Target @ 2.223 is 85% achieved.
    • Nat Gas continued its move lower today on a relatively reduced trading range as it seems hell bent on going after new 10 year lows and our Q1 Downside Target of 2.161.
  • Projected Daily Range: .071
  • Projected Weekly Range: .297
  • Projected Monthly Range:

METALS

GCJ12:

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a close @ 1688.30 or lower. Downside Target @ 1640.10.
    • April Gold finally broke lower out of the trading range of last month's bearish ERVB day as it followed the other "risk" markets lower to close below the daily Support Bollinger Band for the first time since mid-December.
    • The Downside Targets @ 1640.10 and Extreme Target @ 1612.20 remain intact as short term goals.
  • Projected Daily Range: 30.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 66.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 176.10

CURRENCIES

JYH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2335. Confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2384 or higher. Upside Target @ 1.2482.
    • The Japanese yen moved higher Tuesday as the market tries to recover from the onslaught of short selling it has faced over the last month.
    • Look for the market to make a move back to 1.2525 before another round of possible selling occurs.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0127
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0314
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0508

ECH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • New low made today on current move @ 1.3104. Downside Target @ 1.3100 is 99% achieved.
    • The euro moved sharply lower today as well, following the outside markets lower after achieving our downside target to within 4 ticks today.
    • This market still has some unfinished business below 1.3000 so expect this move to try and bust February's low @ 1.2975.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0117
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0305
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • Short Term Range Trend is bearish. Short Term Closed Trend is bullish.
  • You had a confirmation of a top with a range violation yesterday @ 1356.50 as we have reported this week.  Closed Trend Confirmation of a top with a close @ 1342.00 or lower. Downside Target @ 1284.50.
    • The March S&P’s finally had the break that we had been expecting for nearly a month now as the market moved sharply lower after running the sell stops below 1350.
    • Given the intraday/intraweek oversold conditions, expect a little rally on Wednesday before continuing a possible move down to 1327.00.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 23.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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