Gold and oil declines continue, searching for bottoms

Looking toppy

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 03/06/12

KEY TERMS
OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • VRCB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.48. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 122.48 or lower.
  • April Brent Crude was able to log a daily gain after initially heading lower in overnight trading before rebounding throughout the day.
  • If Tuesday can break through Monday’s high, look for the market to go after 127.12.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.55
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.14
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51

CLJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • VRCB generated Monday. Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 105.79. Upside Target already 98% achieved. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 105.79 or lower.
  • April Crude remained nearly unchanged today while trading within a very narrow range as it bounced off the $105.50 support zone as it has done repeatedly over the past few weeks.
  • If the market breaks lower through Monday’s low the downside should be fairly limited to 103.86.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.05
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.52
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26

NGJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • New contract lows made today @ 2.349. Downside Target @ 2.272 85% achieved and Extreme Target @ 2.223.
  • Nat Gas broke through to new lows Monday as it closed below the Support Bollinger Band for the second time in three days as it looks to go after the 2012 lows @ 2.231.
  • Projected Daily Range: .109
  • Projected Weekly Range: .297
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690

METALS

GCJ12:

  • Short Term Range Trend is bearish. Short Term Closed Trend is bullish.
  • Third consecutive day of trading within the range of the 02/29/11 bearish ERVB.
  • April Gold again moved lower on Monday but was unable to break through the range of the huge down day from last week.
  • Until this market can crack the 02/29/11 low @ 1688.40 or reverse course with a move above last Thursday, the downside target of 1639.70 remains the aiming point in this market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 66.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 176.10

CURRENCIES

JYH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Inside day today. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2335. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2335 or higher.
  • The Japanese Yen reversed its close indictor on Monday as it has fulfilled our Q1 Projections 1.2322 beautifully that were forecasted on January 11, 2012 and looks to possibly regain some if its losses.
  • Any and all rallies should be sold from now until the end of the month at least.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0105
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0314
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0508

ECH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • New low made today on current move @ 1.3161. Downside Target @ 1.3100 is 75% achieved.
  • The Euro started out the week lagging lower as it made new two-week lows but pushed higher throughout the session to post a daily gain as it closed back above 1.3200.  This market traded all over our first support yesterday mentioned in our report last week @ 1.3217.
  • Once Monday’s high is violated, the real test of this market resolve to push higher will appear @ 1.3325.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0101
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0305
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1356.50. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1356.50 or lower.
  • The March S&P’s moved indecisively lower Monday as they rallied hard to close the day at their mid-range.
  • This market is so badly overbought and almost seems like it WANTS to correct lower but buyers continue to scoop the market up at intraday support levels.
  • If the market does break lower, Maximum Downside Objective for the short term would be 1327.00.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 23.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.50


About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus