Daily Market Analysis Monday 03/05/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
STT 1 Trend Based on a Range Violation
STT 2 Trend Based on a Close Violation
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band
ENERGIES
CLJ12:
- STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
- Possible STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 105.79. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 105.79 or lower.
- April Crude seemed to lose its luster at the end of the week after false reports of a Saudi pipeline rupture spooked the market late Thursday before dropping $5 in the next 24 hours to end the week lower.
- Crude has hit 85% of our weekly target of 113.59 from the bottom in December and if the market breaks last week’s low should move back to 101.29 before resuming its move higher.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.27
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.71
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.15
NGJ12:
- STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bearish.
- Inside VRCB generated on Friday. Downside Target = 2.223.
- Natural Gas traded within a very tight range on Friday after moving sharply lower all of last week before finding a little Short Term support on the daily SBB.
- Gas should try to run the stops below 2.390 and make new contract lows at the beginning of this week.
- Projected Daily Range: .111
- Projected Weekly Range: .294
- Projected Monthly Range: .760
METALS
GCJ12:
- STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
- Second consecutive inside compression day on Friday. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 1688.30 or lower.
- April Gold remained steady on Friday as the market seemed to still be reeling from the massive sell-off last Wednesday as it traded below $1,700 for the first time since January.
- Based on Friday’s close, Gold should look to try and retest the $1,700/oz. level again to see if any support lingers or if the market will trade lower toward our Short Term downside target of 1,639.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 66.40
- Projected Monthly Range: 187.10
CURRENCIES
ECH12:
- STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
- New low made on current move last Friday @ 1.3188. Downside Target@ 1.3149 75% achieved.
- The euro was pummeled again Friday, dropping over 100 points before finding some support at the prior week’s low.
- If the Euro falls below 1.3182, the Euro will generate a weekly confirmation of a top and should make a move lower toward our Q1 Downside objective of 1.2153.
- Projected Daily Range: .0131
- Projected Weekly Range: .0305
- Projected Monthly Range: .0653
INDEXES
ESH12:
- STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
- Possible STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1356.50. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 1356.50 or lower.
- The March S&P’s moved lower on Friday but still managed to squeak out an overall gain for the week as heavy selling has come into the market once it trades above 1375.
- If the S&P’s are hit again above 1375, this market could easily break to violate last week’s low and begin a several day correction back to 1327.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 23.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 91.50
