Oil targets $114, gold still searching for bottom

Daily Market Analysis Friday 03/02/12

KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
STT 1 Trend Based on a Range Violation
STT 2 Trend Based on a Close Violation
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band

ENERGIES

CLJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • Proprietary confirmation of a bottom @ 109.96. Upside Target = 114.18.
    • April Crude exploded to make new 2012 highs just before the pit session closed today on rumors of a Saudi oil line explosion that turned out to be false, causing the market to settle back toward its daily mid-range.
    • Look for crude to have a short sell-off on Friday before resuming its current upward momentum back above $110.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.03
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.07
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26
  • If you followed our Analysis this week we were calling for a sell-off early in the week followed by a reversal with our Downside Targets 105.55 - 104.70 which traded on Wednesday @ 104.84.

NGJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bearish.
  • New one month lows made on current move @ 2.444. Downside Target @ 2.272 70% achieved.
    • Natural Gas traded at its lowest level in more than a month today as the sideways price action during February may have been nothing more than this battered market trying to take a breather on its way to fresh 2012 and 10 year lows.
    • Look for April Gas to go after our Q1 objective of 2.161.
  • Projected Daily Range: .134
  • Projected Weekly Range: .273
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690

METALS

GCJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • Inside recovery day on Thursday.
    • April Gold managed to scrap together a marginal gain on Thursday to put in a small recovery from the massive sell-off from Wednesday.
    • This market could fall a little lower down to 1639.70 – 1612.20 before finding an intermediate term bottom.
  • Projected Daily Range: 32.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 176.10

CURRENCIES

ECH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • New low made on current sell off @ 1.3282. Downside Target 60% achieved.
    • The euro moved just slightly lower today as Greece was able to secure a provisional approval for additional bailout money despite the upward movement in the USD.
    • The euro should continue to fall just a bit more towards 1.3217 before finding some solid support. Next week’s Downside Targets @ 1.3149 and Extreme Downside Target @ 1.3100. (It is very unusual for our projections to show a round number.)
  • Projected Daily Range: .0110
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0304
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • Inside set up day. Possible STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1356.50. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 1356.50 or lower.
    • The March S&P’s put in their highest close of 2012 today after erasing nearly all the losses from Wednesday’s bearish OVB session.
    • The market has been on a 50-day run without looking back for any kind correction and is heavily overbought at these levels.
    • Based on 30 years of history there is only a 5% probability that the S&P trades outside 30 days without a closed range violation.
      • A correction is still necessary and long overdue but there still may be a little upside left in this move as it goes after our Q1 Target of 1383.50. As noted on our website under 2011 Q4 History we missed the Upside Target by 3 ticks.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 23.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading technical analysis firm that specializes in WTI. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately called both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. Their trading methodology confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Although their expertise is focused on WTI, they also provide technical analysis on 16 commodity markets including the energies, metals, equity index, currencies, grains, meats and interest rates. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com. www.ParrishHicks.com.

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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