Oil reversing losses, but gold and euro to keep falling

Daily Market Analysis Thursday 03/01/12

KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
STT 1 Trend Based on a Range Violation
STT 2 Trend Based on a Close Violation
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band

ENERGIES

BRNJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • New low made today on current move @ 120.50. STT 1 Downside Target 90% achieved
    • o April Brent Crude reversed course late in the afternoon as the Fed’s Beige Book painted a pretty picture for oil futures projecting steady growth for 2012.
    • This market should resume its upward momentum soon and will violate the 2011 high and go after 129.05 soon after.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.55
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.22
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51

CLJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 1 Trends are bullish.
  • New low made today on current move @ 104.84. STT 1 Downside Target 95% achieved.
    • April Crude followed in Brent’s footsteps today, erasing early losses and reversing the close indicator back to bullish.
    • April Crude should move towards 110.80 before chasing down last year’s high of 114.83.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.53
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.07
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26
    • Bullish VRCB-OVB combo generated in February

NGJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bearish.
  • New low made today on current move @ 2.502. Downside Target @ 2.272 now 55% achieved.
    • Nat Gas generated a bullish AOVB today after finding strong support at the $2.50 level and the daily SBB.
    • This market has been able to put in higher lows over the past month and should be near major term lows before making a push higher.
  • Projected Daily Range: .125
  • Projected Weekly Range: .273
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690
    • Natural Gas generated an inside VRCB month in February

METALS

GCJ12:

  • STT 1 Trend is bearish. STT 2 Trend is bullish.
  • STT 1 Trend Reversal from bullish to bearish @ 1762.50.
    • April Gold had its largest decline since late September 2011 today as price action virtually eradicated all of its month gains in one day.
    • This market has been long overdue for a correction and a break to 1639.70 should run out all the hot money in the market before another upward leg occurs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 49.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 176.10
    • Gold generated a VRCB month in February

CURRENCIES

JYH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bearish.
    • The Japanese Yen broke lower today back to 1.2300 to put in its lowest close of the year after trading back through our Q1 downside target @ 1.2322.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0170
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0293
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0508
    • Japanese Yen generated a bearish OVB in February

ECH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • Bearish OVB generated today. STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3357. STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3325 or lower. Downside Target = 1.3100.
    • The euro came within one tick of breaking last week’s high before reversing course and making an OVB to the entire week.
  • o Look for the euro to break lower towards last week’s low @ 1.3217.
  • · Projected Daily Range: .0120
  • · Projected Weekly Range: .0304
  • · Projected Monthly Range: .0601
  • o The Euro FX generated a C > HOLB during February setting up for a Major Term Trend Reversal from bearish to bullish.

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • Bearish OVB generated today after making new 2012 highs @ 1377.25.
    • The March S&P’s broke sharply lower after making new highs on the current move and generated an inter-day internal proprietary sell signal based off of the 2011 yearly high.
    • With our Daily Proprietary Signal generating a bearish Trend Reversal and the market coming within six points of our Q1 Target, ESH12 is due for a solid correction, possibly down to 1332.75.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 22.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
    • The S&P’s made new highs in February dating back to June ’08

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading technical analysis firm that specializes in WTI. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately called both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. Their trading methodology confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Although their expertise is focused on WTI, they also provide technical analysis on 16 commodity markets including the energies, metals, equity index, currencies, grains, meats and interest rates. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com. www.ParrishHicks.com.

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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