Oil correction minor, gold could see $1,844

Daily Market Analysis Wednesday 02/29/12

KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
STT 1 Trend Based on a Range Violation
STT 2 Trend Based on a Close Violation
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band

ENERGIES

CLJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 107.26. STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 106.55 or lower. Downside Target = 103.37.
    • April Crude broke lower on Tuesday due to some of the lowest durable goods orders in more than three years.
    • This crude sell-off should max out at around $5 and trade to $105.55 – 104.70.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.33
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.07
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.15

NGJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bearish.
  • New low made today on current move @ 2.511. Downside Target 50% achieved.
    • Natural Gas broke lower again today to generate its lowest close of 2012 in the April contract before stopping just shy of $2.50.
    • Wednesday should see some more follow through lower to challenge the contract lows @ 2.390 before going after the downside objective of 2.272
  • Projected Daily Range: .124
  • Projected Weekly Range: .273
  • Projected Monthly Range: .760

METALS

GCJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • STT 1 confirmation of a bottom with range violation @ 1789.60. STT 1 Upside Target = 1884.50.
    • April Gold pushed back higher Tuesday, making new 2012 highs as it approaches the psychological resistance point of $1,800/oz.
    • Once gold is able to crack $1,800, it should have no problem taking the full Quarterly Range to the upside after our objective of $1,844.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 187.10

CURRENCIES

ECH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • 2nd consecutive inside day on Tuesday. Possible STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3357. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3357 or lower.
    • The Euro reversed its close indicator back to bullish Tuesday, setting up for another push higher to new 2012 highs.
    • Once last week’s high is violated, look for our Q1 Extended Upside Target of 1.3656.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0106
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0304
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0653

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • New 3 ½ year highs made today @ 1373.75. Upside Target over 140% achieved.
    • The March S&P’s violated last year’s high by one tick on its current move higher that has lasted since mid-December 2011 without a closed range as it nears our Q1 Upside Target of 1383.50.
    • With multiple time and price indicators saying the market is very overbought at these levels, look for the S&P’s to go after the Q1 number before any correction occurs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 11.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 23.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 91.50

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading technical analysis firm that specializes in WTI. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately called both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. Their trading methodology confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Although their expertise is focused on WTI, they also provide technical analysis on 16 commodity markets including the energies, metals, equity index, currencies, grains, meats and interest rates. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com. www.ParrishHicks.com.

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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