Oil, gold and S&P 500 showing short-term weakness

Daily Market Analysis Tuesday 02/28/12

KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
STT 1 Trend Based on a Range Violation
STT 2 Trend Based on a Close Violation
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band

ENERGIES

CLJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • Possible STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 107.26. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 107.26 or lower.
    • April Crude put in a lower high/low compared to the previous day’s range for the first time in over two weeks on Monday, setting up for a move back to 105.45.
    • Like the Gold and S&P markets, WTI is still very strong and the current market conditions say that any sell-off should only be viewed as short-term.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.07
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.15

NGJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • STT 2 TREND REVERSAL from bullish to bearish with a close @ 2.603 or lower. Downside Target = 2.223.
    • Nat Gas broke lower today through the $2.60 level as it nears the levels of recent support where it will have to make a decision to break lower toward the April contract objective of 2.390 or toil within the sideways price action.
  • Projected Daily Range: .128
  • Projected Weekly Range: .273
  • Projected Monthly Range: .760

METALS

GCJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • ST 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1771.20. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 1771.20 or lower.
    • April Gold moved lower for its second consecutive day on Monday after failing to break through the $1,800/oz. level.
    • This market is still technically strong and this sell-off that may ensue should only last at most to $1,730.30.
  • Projected Daily Range: 26.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 187.10

CURRENCIES

ECH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • Inside day on Monday. Possible STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3357. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3357 or lower.
    • The Euro traded lower today as it closed back within the range of the daily Bollinger Bands as it took a pause from the rally it has enjoyed over the past week.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0128
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0304
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0653

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • Bullish VRCB-OVB combo generated today making new 2012 highs @ 1370.25. STT 1 Downside Target = 1426.25.
    • The March S&P’s looked like they really wanted to break lower today but rallied strongly to end up generating an OVB to make new 2012 highs before stopping just shy of 2011’s high.
    • Note: Last week was a VRCB week that’s high has already been violated.
  • Projected Daily Range: 12.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 22.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 91.50

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading technical analysis firm that specializes in WTI. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately called both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. Their trading methodology confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Although their expertise is focused on WTI, they also provide technical analysis on 16 commodity markets including the energies, metals, equity index, currencies, grains, meats and interest rates. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com. www.ParrishHicks.com.

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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