S&P 500 top heavy; oil, gold set to push higher

Daily Market Analysis Monday 02/27/12

KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
STT 1 Trend Based on a Range Violation
STT 2 Trend Based on a Close Violation
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band

ENERGIES

CLJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • New nine-month highs made on Friday @ 109.95. Our Weekly Range @ 109.69 was achieved by 104%.
    • April Crude again moved higher to end the week at its highest levels in nine months before stopping just shy of $110.
    • Crude closed above the weekly RBB and at its third highest weekly level since 2008 as the spot contract moved closer to our Weekly Target of 113.59.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.13
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.07
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.15

NGJ12:

· STT 1 Trend is bearish. STT 2 Trend is bullish.

· Possible STT 1 TREND REVERSAL from bullish to bearish with a close with a range violation @ 2.669 or lower.

o Natural Gas settled at its lowest level of the week on Friday as it set up to move lower at the beginning of this week to retest the $2.50 level once again.

· Projected Daily Range: .124

· Projected Weekly Range: .273

· Projected Monthly Range: .760

METALS

GCJ12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • VRCB generated on Friday. Possible STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1771.20. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 1771.20 or lower.
    • April Gold settled lower on Friday as buyers looked to do a little profit taking, dropping the market back within the daily Bollinger Bands.
    • Gold may experience a slight sell-off to begin the week but should ultimately continue higher to make a serious run at cracking $1,800 this week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 187.10

CURRENCIES

ECH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • New 2012 highs made on Friday @ 1.3488. Upside Target over 125% achieved.
    • The euro continued on its bull run Friday, making new highs for the year and closing outside the RBB for the second straight day as the euro looks primed to make a run @ our Weekly Objective of 1.3656.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0112
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0304
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0653

INDEXES

ESH12:

  • STT 1 and STT 2 Trends are bullish.
  • Possible STT 1 confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1368.75. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 1352.75 or lower.
    • The March S&P’s were flat on Friday and not only generated a Daily VRCB but also generated a Weekly VRCB after reaching the level of last year’s high.
    • This market has looked top-heavy for quite some time now and with a violation of last week’s low @ 1350.25 will set up for its first weekly sell signal in four months.
  • Projected Daily Range: 10.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 23.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 91.50

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading technical analysis firm that specializes in WTI. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately called both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. Their trading methodology confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Although their expertise is focused on WTI, they also provide technical analysis on 16 commodity markets including the energies, metals, equity index, currencies, grains, meats and interest rates. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com. www.ParrishHicks.com.

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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