Tying the oil discussion into the VIX we don’t seem to be worrying too much about the high cost of oil and perhaps a little worriment would help reset the oscillator. On Friday markets were slightly up and so was the VIX so it’s a little help but not much. It appears that unless Euro bears start to growl we never seem to get any bearish sentiment.
The Greenback had an interesting week. It hit a key Gann square of 9 level, attempted to bounce but utterly failed. But I think it has gone far enough to start the week with another serious bounce attempt. Putting all of this together, the SPX is finally at the target with sentiment at an extreme. I came after New Year’s suggesting this would be the scenario. I know other markets have done even better but this could be a week for a stall given the level of resistance which is 2011 high. But China has more room and if sectors like the biotech and transports hold the line here we should see a continuation of this rally. We have 2 important time windows coming up. First we have the 3rd anniversary of the March 2009 bottom and 2 weeks later is the Gann Master Timing Window for the year with the seasonal change point. It’s hard to imagine but markets could stay elevated until then. If for some reason they peak this week, I’d look for a low around March 20. We are getting to one of the more important pivotal cycle points of the year.
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Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.
Lucas Wave International (https://www.lucaswaveinternational.com) provides forecasts of financial markets via the Fibonacci Forecaster and other reports. The company provides coaching/seminars to teach traders around the world about this cutting edge methodology.