April WTI future continues to gain upside momentum as the weekly moving-average cross has kept it in buy the dip mode. It will continue to buy dips as long as above $103.39 for now. The moving average cross normally gives an extended move. USO seems likely to test its .786 retracement at 42.07 (and bottom of gap). Brent remains positive short-term with settles above 122.20 and 127.00 area initial target.
DJ Transports actually rallied even with the move in crude oil on Thursday. R2000 held its short-term .786 support and is now nearing its .786 s/t resistance of 830.80.* R2 spot index continues to hold above 811 pivot pt support. S&P E-mini is putting in a trend-line support, although trend-lines have been quickly disqualified lately. DAX has 7035/55 as key resistance.
For Friday, key 1364.50 in SPX to start the day. USH has 142-13/05 area as first key support. A break of 142-05 turns momentum lower; BUT momentum indicators suggest USH tests 143-07*. The Bund faltering from its s/t .786 resistance, but upside momentum above this level would likely test top of wedge formation at 139.46**. Gold positive above 1688 for now. Silver climbs above its 200 day average and gains upside with settle above 35.30.
Market Sentiment
|
CONTRACT / SECTOR |
THEME POS / NEG |
POSITION STAGE |
TARGET / KEY PTS |
|
STOCK INDICES US |
Pause |
SPH 1353 trend line* |
R2000 spot 811* |
|
US TREASURIES |
Positive |
USH 142-05/13* |
TYH 130-11/12* |
|
CRUDE WTI/BRENT |
Positive |
Brent Positive 122.20* |
April WTI 107.09* |
|
METALS |
Positive |
Gold 1688** |
Copper 3.72 close* |
|
CURRENCIES |
EURUSD positive |
Neg US$ Index 79.65cl |
GBP positive |
|
GRAINS |
Mixed |
CH 6.196* support |
SH near 200 day avg |
David Wienke runs Triquetra Resources Ltd. in Riverside, Ill. (www.triquetraresources.com).
