Oil gains upside momentum with technical cross

April WTI future continues to gain upside momentum as the weekly moving-average cross has kept it in buy the dip mode. It will continue to buy dips as long as above $103.39 for now. The moving average cross normally gives an extended move. USO seems likely to test its .786 retracement at 42.07 (and bottom of gap). Brent remains positive short-term with settles above 122.20 and 127.00 area initial target.

DJ Transports actually rallied even with the move in crude oil on Thursday. R2000 held its short-term .786 support and is now nearing its .786 s/t resistance of 830.80.* R2 spot index continues to hold above 811 pivot pt support. S&P E-mini is putting in a trend-line support, although trend-lines have been quickly disqualified lately. DAX has 7035/55 as key resistance.

For Friday, key 1364.50 in SPX to start the day. USH has 142-13/05 area as first key support. A break of 142-05 turns momentum lower; BUT momentum indicators suggest USH tests 143-07*. The Bund faltering from its s/t .786 resistance, but upside momentum above this level would likely test top of wedge formation at 139.46**. Gold positive above 1688 for now. Silver climbs above its 200 day average and gains upside with settle above 35.30.

Market Sentiment

CONTRACT / SECTOR

THEME POS / NEG

POSITION STAGE

TARGET / KEY PTS

STOCK INDICES US

Pause

SPH 1353 trend line*

R2000 spot 811*

US TREASURIES

Positive

USH 142-05/13*

TYH 130-11/12*

CRUDE WTI/BRENT

Positive

Brent Positive 122.20*

April WTI 107.09*

METALS

Positive

Gold 1688**

Copper 3.72 close*

CURRENCIES

EURUSD positive

Neg US$ Index 79.65cl

GBP positive

GRAINS

Mixed

CH 6.196* support

SH near 200 day avg

David Wienke runs Triquetra Resources Ltd. in Riverside, Ill. (www.triquetraresources.com).

About the Author
David Wienke runs Triquetra Resources Ltd. in Riverside, Ill. (www.triquetraresources.com).
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