With US unleaded gas demand at 10-year lows, why the highest prices for this time of year?

Market Pulse: Feb 21, 2012

COT Data

On the weekly chart below, you can see how Managed Money started adding to net longs mid-December and Producers began adding to net shorts. Swap Dealers are not as heavy handed in RBOB as they are in Crude Oil, as they are sitting on a small net long position.

On the 10-year monthly chart below, I have highlighted January and February since 2002. This shows concrete proof that in fact it is TRUE. RBOB (unleaded gas) is at all-time highs for this time of year. See the fundamental comments to find out exactly why.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

17-Feb

10-Feb

Cattle (feed)

-1,889

5,543

-1,821

-1,889

Cattle (live)

-40,877

10,437

-28,467

-27,358

Hogs

-46,574

21,270

-20,423

-17,884

Corn

-413,915

-36,487

-101,133

-110,142

Oats

-7,738

290

-1,280

-997

Soybeans

-193,048

28,178

-55,948

-42,160

Soybean meal

-76,105

32,081

-9,307

-6,240

Soybean oil

-91,150

29,745

-8,297

1,199

Wheat

-11,802

87,922

72,471

60,927

Orange juice

-22,341

-9,769

-13,977

-15,222

Coffee

-40,485

1,153

-1,908

-9,569

Cocoa

-41,808

13,302

13,302

9,006

Sugar

-208,312

-25,626

-73,985

-64,569

Cotton

-41,880

-2,152

-14,643

-23,509

British pound

-56,162

88,682

49,164

41,719

Canada dollar

-115,190

25,942

-24,625

-18,274

Euro FX

-124,855

197,616

175,133

165,164

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-14,399

-50,221

Swiss franc

-42,387

26,491

21,223

15,653

US dollar index

-53,158

14,003

-34,861

-37,570

Mexican Peso

-140,414

39,901

-43,492

-35,867

Australian dollar

-110,025

479

-87,442

-89,774

S&P 500

-77,473

73,398

-24,873

-27,983

T-note -10 yr

-49,750

229,611

78,754

109,577

T-bond -30 yr

-20,389

88,803

18,505

18,104

Eurodollar

-408,407

1,126,194

-105,875

-87,592

Crude oil

-319,669

-114,385

-231,813

-201,157

Heating oil

-53,631

-4,204

-48,988

-53,631

RBOB Gasoline

-101,926

-38,417

-101,926

-101,596

Natural gas

101,596

228,910

102,831

101,596

Copper

-35,687

14,419

-8,714

-4,578

Gold

-287,634

-159,153

-209,408

-221,072

Platinum

-35,249

-18,670

-32,436

-29,948

Silver

-57,793

-14,132

-37,310

-34,650

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

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Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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