It was reported last week that unleaded gas prices are the highest they have been for this time of the year. True or False?
March 2012 RBOB (unleaded gas) opened last week at 2.9880 and closed the week at 3.0156.
On the March 2012 daily chart below, you can see just how strong the current trend has become with ADX now at 51. This started back in mid-December. MACD has been riding up just above the signal line with little divergence since mid-January, and Stochastics are currently in deep overbought territory. Look at Open Interest and how it has risen. So who exactly is buying and selling?
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
COT Data
On the weekly chart below, you can see how Managed Money started adding to net longs mid-December and Producers began adding to net shorts. Swap Dealers are not as heavy handed in RBOB as they are in Crude Oil, as they are sitting on a small net long position.
On the 10-year monthly chart below, I have highlighted January and February since 2002. This shows concrete proof that in fact it is TRUE. RBOB (unleaded gas) is at all-time highs for this time of year. See the fundamental comments to find out exactly why.
|
Commodity |
12-mo low |
12-mo hi |
17-Feb |
10-Feb |
|
Cattle (feed) |
-1,889 |
5,543 |
-1,821 |
-1,889 |
|
Cattle (live) |
-40,877 |
10,437 |
-28,467 |
-27,358 |
|
Hogs |
-46,574 |
21,270 |
-20,423 |
-17,884 |
|
Corn |
-413,915 |
-36,487 |
-101,133 |
-110,142 |
|
Oats |
-7,738 |
290 |
-1,280 |
-997 |
|
Soybeans |
-193,048 |
28,178 |
-55,948 |
-42,160 |
|
Soybean meal |
-76,105 |
32,081 |
-9,307 |
-6,240 |
|
Soybean oil |
-91,150 |
29,745 |
-8,297 |
1,199 |
|
Wheat |
-11,802 |
87,922 |
72,471 |
60,927 |
|
Orange juice |
-22,341 |
-9,769 |
-13,977 |
-15,222 |
|
Coffee |
-40,485 |
1,153 |
-1,908 |
-9,569 |
|
Cocoa |
-41,808 |
13,302 |
13,302 |
9,006 |
|
Sugar |
-208,312 |
-25,626 |
-73,985 |
-64,569 |
|
Cotton |
-41,880 |
-2,152 |
-14,643 |
-23,509 |
|
British pound |
-56,162 |
88,682 |
49,164 |
41,719 |
|
Canada dollar |
-115,190 |
25,942 |
-24,625 |
-18,274 |
|
Euro FX |
-124,855 |
197,616 |
175,133 |
165,164 |
|
Japanese yen |
-64,864 |
76,983 |
-14,399 |
-50,221 |
|
Swiss franc |
-42,387 |
26,491 |
21,223 |
15,653 |
|
US dollar index |
-53,158 |
14,003 |
-34,861 |
-37,570 |
|
Mexican Peso |
-140,414 |
39,901 |
-43,492 |
-35,867 |
|
Australian dollar |
-110,025 |
479 |
-87,442 |
-89,774 |
|
S&P 500 |
-77,473 |
73,398 |
-24,873 |
-27,983 |
|
T-note -10 yr |
-49,750 |
229,611 |
78,754 |
109,577 |
|
T-bond -30 yr |
-20,389 |
88,803 |
18,505 |
18,104 |
|
Eurodollar |
-408,407 |
1,126,194 |
-105,875 |
-87,592 |
|
Crude oil |
-319,669 |
-114,385 |
-231,813 |
-201,157 |
|
Heating oil |
-53,631 |
-4,204 |
-48,988 |
-53,631 |
|
RBOB Gasoline |
-101,926 |
-38,417 |
-101,926 |
-101,596 |
|
Natural gas |
101,596 |
228,910 |
102,831 |
101,596 |
|
Copper |
-35,687 |
14,419 |
-8,714 |
-4,578 |
|
Gold |
-287,634 |
-159,153 |
-209,408 |
-221,072 |
|
Platinum |
-35,249 |
-18,670 |
-32,436 |
-29,948 |
|
Silver |
-57,793 |
-14,132 |
-37,310 |
-34,650 |
Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book “What Lies Beneath ALL Trends”. It is filled with eye opening information.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...
Fundamentals
RBOB is at all-time highs for this time of year even though we see U.S. demand for gasoline at 10-year lows. So why is gasoline so high? Maybe it has to do with the fact that in 2011 the United States’ number one export was refined fuels. That is, the United States exported more unleaded gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel than any other export, a total of $88 billion worth. For the five years before 2011, the number one U.S. export was airplanes.
So when you are filling up this summer, where expectations are for prices well over $4.00 per gallon, think about all the fuel leaving our shores. Let’s just hope the higher prices do not slam on the breaks of our slow recovering economy.
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