Natural gas setting up for push to new lows

Daily Market Analysis Thursday 02/16/12

KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
STT 1 Trend Based on a Range Violation
STT 2 Trend Based on a Close Violation
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band

ENERGIES

CLH12:

  • STT 1 Trend is bullish. STT 2 Trend is bearish.
  • New 5 week highs made today @ 102.54. Upside Target over 115% achieved.
    • March Crude pushed back higher again yesterday, trading 10 ticks through our upside target of 102.44 before finding resistance and closing slightly above the day’s mid-range.
    • With crude moving higher into defined resistance territory, this market may look to shed some gains and could push back towards $100 very quickly.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.77
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.73
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.15

NGH12:

  • STT 1 Trend is bullish. STT 2 Trend is bearish.
  • Bearish CLOSE REVERSAL generated today.
    • Nat Gas generated a double close reversal today back to bearish and is setting up for a violation of last week’s low @ 2.390.
  • Natural gas needs to trade to at least 2.382 to avoid becoming an inside VRCB week.
  • Projected Daily Range: .124
  • Projected Weekly Range: .430
  • Projected Monthly Range: .760

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading technical analysis firm that specializes in WTI. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately called both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. Their trading methodology confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Although their expertise is focused on WTI, they also provide technical analysis on 16 commodity markets including the energies, metals, equity index, currencies, grains, meats and interest rates. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com. www.ParrishHicks.com.

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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