Market Snapshot for session ending 2-14-12:
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change | |
|
S&P 500 Index |
1350.50 |
-1.27 |
-.09% |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
12878.28 |
+4.24 |
+.03% |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
2931.83 |
+.44 |
+.02% |
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
3004.85 |
-7.95 |
-.26% |
|
Minor Cycle |
Intermediate Cycle |
Major Cycle |
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Major indexes closed mixed Tuesday, but in overnight trading bellwether S&P 500 Emini futures contract rallied several points to suggest S&P could move to new short term high via Wednesday’s trading.
- Daily CPFL bettered its October 28 resistance high Tuesday with a positive ratio of 2.15 to 1, but indicator continues to remain substantially below February 25, 2011 high.
- Trading volume in S&P 500 rose by nearly 15% Tuesday.
- Short and Intermediate-term trends remain “Overbought.”
- Minor cycle advance in S&P has been underway since short-term low (1202.27) on December 19 and has accrued an advance of just over 12%.
- Weakness below lower edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1326.97—Wednesday) would suggest beginning of end of Minor Cycle uptrend.
- Short-term Momentum in S&P 500 remains marginally positive.
- Daily MAAD was negative Tuesday by 5 to 14 and was last plotted 12 issues below its February 8 short-term high and best level since March 4, 2008. Weekly MAAD continues to underperform Daily series.
- Cumulative Volume (CV) in S&P 500 remains above late October resistance highs, but Emini CV remains weak.
| Index | Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops | Weekly | Monthly | ||||
| 2/13 | 2/14 | 2/15 | 2/16 | 2/17 | 2/17 | 2/29 | |
|
S&P 500 |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
|
Dow Jones |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
|
NASDAQ |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
|
Value Line |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
SELL |
Market Overview – What We Think:
- Overnight upward spike in S&P 500 Emini futures contract could spur index prices higher in early trading Wednesday.
- S&P remained 1.46% from equaling its May 2011 high at 1370.58 as of Tuesday’s close.
- Lacking confirmation from majority of our key indicators, rally since October lows leaves rally in doubt. Ultimate status of Intermediate to Major Cycles will be determined once short-term advance ends and bias of indicators relative to pricing is assessed.
- Market’s true internal “health” as measured by indicators ought to determine staying power of pricing. Higher prices can occur, but without indicator confirmation, strength is definitely suspect.
- Ongoing struggle relative to 2011 highs gives us feeling there is certain inevitability about this market which could ultimately be bearish.
Click charts to enlarge
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
Click charts to enlarge
MAAD Daily data for past 30 days* CPFL data for past 30 Days
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
1-3-12 |
19 |
1 |
1-3-12 |
35670 |
29266 |
|
1-4-12 |
13 |
7 |
1-4-12 |
26802 |
22155 |
|
1-5-12 |
16 |
4 |
1-5-12 |
61415 |
21835 |
|
1-6-12 |
7 |
13 |
1-6-12 |
22284 |
25868 |
|
1-9-12 |
17 |
3 |
1-9-12 |
9556 |
14616 |
|
1-10-12 |
14 |
4 |
1-10-12 |
49137 |
22774 |
|
1-11-12 |
15 |
5 |
1-11-12 |
33050 |
16064 |
|
1-12-12 |
15 |
5 |
1-12-12 |
38719 |
17173 |
|
1-13-12 |
3 |
15 |
1-13-12 |
52855 |
26824 |
|
1-17-12 |
10 |
9 |
1-17-12 |
55193 |
29267 |
|
1-18-12 |
18 |
1 |
1-18-12 |
51107 |
17292 |
|
1-19-12 |
17 |
3 |
1-19-12 |
122407 |
21066 |
|
1-20-12 |
12 |
7 |
1-20-12 |
28217 |
22777 |
|
1-23-12 |
13 |
6 |
1-23-12 |
21447 |
40321 |
|
1-24-12 |
9 |
11 |
1-24-12 |
23867 |
17961 |
|
1-25-12 |
14 |
2 |
1-25-12 |
48455 |
32170 |
|
1-26-12 |
4 |
15 |
1-26-12 |
35614 |
34927 |
|
1-27-12 |
7 |
13 |
1-27-12 |
35352 |
26624 |
|
1-30-12 |
8 |
11 |
1-30-12 |
31907 |
21965 |
|
1-31-12 |
10 |
10 |
1-31-12 |
22035 |
19605 |
|
2-1-12 |
19 |
1 |
2-1-12 |
59444 |
33008 |
|
2-2-12 |
11 |
7 |
2-2-12 |
26098 |
13336 |
|
2-3-12 |
19 |
1 |
2-3-12 |
75145 |
15813 |
|
2-6-12 |
8 |
12 |
2-6-12 |
48497 |
15474 |
|
2-7-12 |
10 |
9 |
2-7-12 |
51427 |
27147 |
|
2-8-12 |
15 |
5 |
2-8-12 |
40749 |
15883 |
|
2-9-12 |
8 |
11 |
2-9-12 |
25312 |
17956 |
|
2-10-12 |
3 |
17 |
2-10-12 |
38202 |
39263 |
|
2-13-12 |
16 |
2 |
2-13-12 |
45728 |
13705 |
|
2-14-12 |
5 |
14 |
2-14-12 |
53835 |
24968 |
*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.
Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He is a member of the Market Technicians Association and can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.
If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article.
