Oil could see $100 before another slide lower

Daily Market Analysis 02/06/12

KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
STT 1 Trend Based on a Range Violation
STT 2 Trend Based on a Close Violation
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band

Energies

CLH12:

  • Trends are bearish.
  • Possible STT 1 confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 98.04. Possible STT 2 confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 98.04 or higher.
    • March Crude was able to move higher on Friday due to positive employment data domestically as it came back to close within the daily Bollinger Bands.
    • WTI just missed generating its weekly sell signal, closing 15 ticks above the weekly setup bar low and should take a run back @ $100 before another slide lower.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.32
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.66
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.15

NGH12:

  • Trends are bearish.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Friday. Possible STT 1 TREND REVERSAL from bearish to bullish with a range violation @ 2.588. Possible STT 2 TREND REVERSAL from bearish to bullish with a close @ 2.588 or higher.
    • Nat Gas seemed to have the air let out of the tires on Friday after the big bull run Thursday fizzled with gas generating its second VRCB in 3 days.
    • If Friday’s VRCB is broken to the downside, this market will almost assuredly break lower to new lows, with the first target at our Q1 downside target of 2.161.
  • Projected Daily Range: .168
  • Projected Weekly Range: .460
  • Projected Monthly Range: .760

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading technical analysis firm that specializes in WTI. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately called both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25 move to the upside in October. Their trading methodology confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Although their expertise is focused on WTI, they also provide technical analysis on 16 commodity markets including the energies, metals, equity index, currencies, grains, meats, soft’s and interest rates. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com.

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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