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Oil falls after bearish EIA inventory report

By Dominick A. Chirichella

February 2, 2012 • Reprints

Quote of the Day

Follow your passion and success will follow you.

Terri Guillemets

As I pointed out earlier in the week the correlations between the price of oil and the macro or external price drivers have been changing with more emphasis being placed by market participants on the fundamentals and technicals of oil. This shifting of price drivers has continued for the last few days with oil prices (basis WTI) now trading at the lowest level in about the last six weeks or so while the externals are trading in a direction that would have normally pushed oil prices higher. Yesterday's EIA oil inventory report was bearish (see below for a more detailed discussion of the inventory report) and has played a major role in the most recent leg down in oil prices.

From a technical perspective (refer to the following chart of the spot Nymex WTI continuation chart) WTI has been in a wide trading range of between $92 to $104/bbl since the middle of October of 2011. Since the beginning of this year prices have been slowly moving lower after failing to breach the upper resistance level of the trading range and are now sitting at an intermediate support area of around the $97/bbl level. With little fundamental support the market is looking like it is setting up to breach the intermediate support level and possibly work its way down to a test of the range support area of $92/ bbl.

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About the Author

Energy Market Analysis is published daily by the Energy Management Institute 1324 Lexington Avenue, # 322, New York, NY 10128. Copyright 2008. Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited. Subscriptions: $129 for annual orders. Editor in Chief: Dominick Chirichella, Publisher: Stephen Gloyd, Editor Sal Umek.

EMA has authorized Futures to publish its report once a week on Wednesday prior to the EIA release. For information on how to receive the report everyday look below.

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Information and opinions expressed in this publication are intended to provide general market awareness. The Energy Management Institute and the Energy Market Analysis are not responsible for any business actions, market transactions, or decisions made by its readers based on information published in this report. Readers of the Energy Market Analysis use this market information at their own risk.

This message and any attachments relate to the official business of the Energy Management Institute ("EMI") and are proprietary to EMI. This e-mail transmission may contain information that is proprietary, privileged and/or confidential and is intended exclusively for the person(s) to whom it is addressed. Any use, copying, retention or disclosure by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's designees is strictly prohibited.

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Related Terms
oil 6597Oil 4707crude oil 3328Energies 2981oil prices 1774natural gas 1593New York 841Energy 576ADP 401EIA 366Energy Management Institute 241API 194oil inventory report 173US Fed 154shale gas 100Sal Umek 94Stephen Gloyd 94supply chain 74media airwaves 58Dominick Chirichella 34oil shale 21Inventory 16Dominick A Chirichella 12Distillates 11Crude oil inventories 10oil commodities 5pushed oil prices 3oil/diesel stocks 1crude oil inventory status 1Terri Guillemets 1

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