Oil drops after large build in inventories

Daily Market Analysis 02/02/12

KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
STT 1 Trend Based on a Range Violation
STT 2 Trend Based on a Close Violation
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band

Energies

CLH12:

  • Trends are bearish.
  • New low made today on current move @ 97.11. Downside Target 90% achieved = 96.64-95.69.
    • March Crude followed through on yesterday’s bearish price action following larger than expected builds in inventories and technical resistance just shy of yesterday’s mid-range.
    • Already violating the low of January, the active WTI crude contract only has a 10% chance of making new 2012 highs this month and should continue its slide to test $95.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.48
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.62
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.15
    • VRCB generated on the spot monthly chart

NGH12:

  • Trends are bearish.
  • VRCB generated today. STT 1 confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.452. STT 2 confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.382 or lower. Downside Target = 2.111.
    • Nat Gas pushed lower again today, setting up for its biggest one week decline in months after achieving our initial downside target of 3.377.
  • To restate our earlier projections, the next downside objective comes in @ 2.161 with an extreme medium term target of 1.779.
  • Projected Daily Range: .196
  • Projected Weekly Range: .440
  • Projected Monthly Range: .760

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading technical analysis firm that specializes in WTI. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately called both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25 move to the upside in October. Their trading methodology confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Although their expertise is focused on WTI, they also provide technical analysis on 16 commodity markets including the energies, metals, equity index, currencies, grains, meats, soft’s and interest rates. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com.

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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