Front-month WTI crude oil has traded pretty well within the Fibonacci levels of the major break from 2008-2009. It currently is finding some resistance at the $103.50 area, which is the 61.8% retracement of that move. The 61.8% level becomes particularly important because it held the 38.2% retracement of the same move twice in the second half of 2011.
The weighted moving average cross has been a good indicator of potential acceleration and is turning more positive, even though fundamentals may read differently. A clean weekly settle above $103.50 would push crude to test the pivot point around $106.50 (the 78.6% retracement of the 2011 low), but a confirmation of the moving average cross tends to give a much greater acceleration than this. The move does not necessarily have to be without pullbacks. A 38.2% retracement move on the daily is the first major support and $92.50 held perfectly in December, which was the 38.2% retracement from the fall rally. Therefore we should key on the 38.2s on daily moves for persistent bullishness. The Brent contract has a high correlation to WTI and it has broken out above a major closing trendline at $110. This trendline likely will need to hold to continue the rally. The WTI/Brent spread has been a good technical trade on the weekly chart as well. It put in a 1 x extension low around -$28, almost to the tick. This spread has recently come in to test the 61.8% retracement of the 2008/2011 major move and has pulled back $4, so we will need Brent to continue to find legs. The continued technical strength of Brent can support WTI if it backs off the 61.8% line of the multi-year move as well as the other support we mentioned. David Wienke is a technical analyst and founder of Triquetra Resources Ltd in Riverside, Ill (www.triquetraresources.com).