Oil continues slide as inventory builds expected

Daily Market Analysis 01/25/12

KEY TERMS
OVB = Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB = Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Primary Trend = Trend based on a range confirmation
Secondary Trend = Trend based on a close violation
RBB = Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB = Support Bollinger Band

Energies

CLH12:

  • Primary and Secondary Trends are bearish.
  • Inside VRCB generated today. Possible Primary confirmation of a bottom @ 100.25. Possible Secondary confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 100.25 or higher.
    • March Crude continued to slide slightly lower today as possible inventory builds are expected tomorrow and strong technical selling continues once this market trades above $100.
    • Unless you were Houdini and got short at the very top, the risk-reward trade just hasn’t been available in WTI crude as it continues to be an indecisive traders market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.55
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.65
  • Projected Monthly Range: 14.61

NGH12:

  • Primary and Secondary Trends are bearish.
  • Possible Primary confirmation of a bottom @ 2.705. Possible Secondary confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.705 or higher.
    • Nat Gas was able to violate Monday’s EROVB (Extended Range OVB) high but stopped just short of filling the weekly close gap left from 2 weeks ago.
    • As stated multiple times this year, any and all rallies (this one included), should be viewed as a strong selling opportunity until this market can put in a higher low to reverse the short term trend to bullish.
  • Projected Daily Range: .161
  • Projected Weekly Range: .320
  • Projected Monthly Range: .640

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading technical analysis firm that specializes in Crude Oil (WTI). The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years experience in the commodity business and have accurately called the tops and bottoms of the Crude Oil market for the past eight months using their trading methodology to confirm tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Although their expertise is focused on Crude Oil (WTI), they also provide technical analysis on 30 commodity markets including the energies, metals, equity indexes, currencies, grains, meats, soft’s and interest rates. You can reach them at jim@parrishhicks.com and kris@parrishhicks.com.

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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