Gold over $2,000 in 2012? If so, when?

Market Pulse: Jan 23, 2012

COT Data

If you really want to know when gold makes its move to $2,000 and beyond, you must read the new COT Disaggregated report on the weekly chart below. When looking at the COT report in commodities, the new report is far superior to the older legacy report. Look between July 2011 and October 2011. See how Swap Dealers and Managed Money liquidated net-shorts and net-longs? And then look at the Producers, interesting yes? When you see a posture change for Swap Dealers (adding to net-shorts) and Managed Money (adding to net-longs) you will know gold is on the move up with “big money” moving it. A move, no doubt, that will bring gold to $2,000 and beyond. Without big money making this change I highly doubt gold will get to $2,000. It really is that simple.

And what have I always said. It is not real demand (jewelry-industrial) for gold that has gold so high today. It is investment demand. See the increase in ETF gold demand below in fundamentals. If anyone out there thinks gold ETF’s have nothing to do with the price of gold, I would love to hear from you. I would love to be proven wrong.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

20-Jan

13-Jan

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

5,543

-374

482

Cattle (live)

-40,877

10,437

-10,977

-13,384

Hogs

-46,574

21,270

-9,044

-7,541

Corn

-413,915

-36,487

-94,152

-113,770

Oats

-7,738

176

176

-58

Soybeans

-202,008

28,178

-10,788

-20,068

Soybean meal

-84,656

32,081

15,865

7,650

Soybean oil

-117,444

29,745

17,836

-5,764

Wheat

-32,577

87,922

87,922

75,002

Orange juice

-22,341

-9,769

-14,220

-16,279

Coffee

-44,923

1,153

-8,958

-3,540

Cocoa

-41,808

10,252

8,597

8,714

Sugar

-221,694

-25,626

-39,124

-31,975

Cotton

-46,785

-2,152

-19,681

-19,085

British pound

-66,435

88,682

65,645

55,613

Canada dollar

-115,190

25,942

23,119

19,007

Euro FX

-124,855

187,185

187,185

181,662

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-59,885

-56,728

Swiss franc

-42,387

26,491

24,832

26,491

US dollar index

-53,158

14,003

-52,051

-52,962

Mexican Peso

-140,414

39,901

19,168

24,549

Australian dollar

-110,025

479

-64,096

-60,123

S&P 500

-77,473

73,398

-14,599

-11,225

T-note -10 yr

-49,750

229,611

-49,750

15,661

T-bond -30 yr

-20,389

88,803

-7,958

19,453

Eurodollar

-408,407

1,126,194

134,749

590,076

Crude oil

-319,669

-114,385

-203,116

-195,395

Heating oil

-61,838

-4,204

-42,182

-39,501

RBOB Gasoline

-84,937

-38,417

-82,453

-79,799

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

129,484

133,704

Copper

-35,687

14,419

2,132

6,835

Gold

-287,634

-159,153

-172,976

-166,574

Platinum

-35,249

-18,670

-23,527

-22,486

Silver

-57,793

-14,132

-20,382

-19,062

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

<< Page 2 of 3 >>
Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome