Aussie up, euro down in early Friday trade

Daily Winners and Losers

The Australian dollar is the top performing currency against a weaker greenback in early U.S. trade with an advance of 0.43% on the session. Risk appetite improved at the open of trade in New York with the dollar coming under pressure as higher yielding assets advanced with the Aussie breaching trendline resistance dating back to the Jan.17 high before finding solace at trendline resistance dating back to the Jan. 3 high. A breach here eyes subsequent ceilings at the 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the Dec. 29 and Jan. 8 troughs at 1.0485 and the 1.05-handle. A breach here risks substantial losses for the greenback as it would confirm a break above long-term daily trendline resistance dating back to the 2011 highs. Interim support now rests at 1.0450 backed by 1.0420 and the 76.4% extension at 1.0405.

Key Levels/Indicators in AUD

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

1.0407

100-Day SMA

1.0165

50-Day SMA

1.0139

2011 AUD High

1.1079

The euro is the weakest performer an hour into North American trade with the EUR/USD off by 0.35% on the session. The single currency broke below channel support dating back to Jan. 16 before rebounding off the 38.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the Jan. 13 and the overnight highs at 1.2885. Mild bearish RSI divergence suggests the euro may be putting in an intermittent top here with downside targets held at the 50% extension at 1.2855, the 61.8% extension at 1.2825 and 1.2780. A break back above the 23.6% extension at 1.2925 encounters topside resistance at former channel support backed by 1.2985 and 1.0320. Note that a break above the 1.2985 high negates this scalp setup, with such a scenario requiring us to reconfigure this particular Fibonacci extension. A key test of former channel support is likely before heading lower with only a break below the 1.28-figure flipping our short-term bias to bearish.

Key Levels/Indicators in the EUR

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

1.3891

100-Day SMA

1.3420

50-Day SMA

1.3122

2011 EUR High

1.4939

Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com is a Technical/Fundamental Analyst specializing in the FX markets. E-mail: mboutros@fxcm.com.

Twitter: @MBForex
WEB: www.DailyFX.com
About the Author
Michael Boutros

Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com is a Technical/Fundamental Analyst specializing in the FX markets. E-mail: mboutros@fxcm.com.

Twitter: @MBForex
WEB: www.DailyFX.com

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