Last week, the first trading week of 2012, March corn opened at 662 and closed the week at 643½. March soybeans opened the week at 1233 and closed the week at 1196½. The drop in these two grains was caused mostly by a strengthening U.S. dollar.
We saw a technical trade signal on Dec. 19-20 as corn broke over $6.00. See the green line on the daily chart below. On the corn chart we see ADX at 49 and while it is dropping, this still is a strong trending market. MACD still is over the signal line with a slight drop in divergence late last week, and Stochastics are overbought.
In Soybeans TIF showed a technical trade signal on Dec. 16. See the green line on the daily chart below. ADX at 42 shows the market to be in a strong trend. MACD is bullish and Stochastics attempted a correction from overbought territory, but look to be getting right back there.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...COT Data
On the Commercial Tracker you can see that in corn, commercials have now moved away from the 52-week net high of -36,487 (short) contracts from Dec. 23 and as of this past Friday are now net-short -81,679 contracts. You can see on the weekly chart below the much more transparent Disaggregated COT where Producers are net-short -350,004 contracts and Swap Dealers are net-long 268,325 contracts.
Looking at the weekly chart for soybeans, you can see commercials in the Legacy report are now net-short -11,900 contracts. On the Disaggregated report you can see that in actuality producers are net-short -134,209 contracts and Swap Dealers are net-long 122,309 contracts.
This coming Thursday, Jan. 12 the first World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE report) will be released. Be aware that many times this report sets the stage for grains through the winter. Have a prosperous trading week.
|
Commodity |
12-mo low |
12-mo hi |
6-Jan |
30-Dec |
|
Cattle (feed) |
-1,290 |
5,543 |
894 |
1,400 |
|
Cattle (live) |
-41,437 |
10,437 |
-17,545 |
-11,500 |
|
Hogs |
-46,574 |
21,270 |
-11,144 |
-14,554 |
|
Corn |
-413,915 |
-36,487 |
-81,679 |
-55,493 |
|
Oats |
-7,738 |
83 |
-359 |
-559 |
|
Soybeans |
-203,260 |
28,178 |
-11,900 |
-574 |
|
Soybean meal |
-84,656 |
32,081 |
16,543 |
17,173 |
|
Soybean oil |
-117,444 |
29,745 |
1,856 |
10,517 |
|
Wheat |
-32,577 |
82,335 |
65,502 |
66,641 |
|
Orange juice |
-22,341 |
-9,769 |
-14,529 |
-13,149 |
|
Coffee |
-45,699 |
1,153 |
-2,412 |
185 |
|
Cocoa |
-41,808 |
10,252 |
8,488 |
9,463 |
|
Sugar |
-221,694 |
-25,626 |
-41,174 |
-25,626 |
|
Cotton |
-46,785 |
-2,152 |
-16,267 |
-2,635 |
|
British pound |
-66,435 |
88,682 |
47,751 |
41,338 |
|
Canada dollar |
-115,190 |
25,942 |
18,500 |
19,201 |
|
Euro FX |
-124,855 |
166,069 |
166,069 |
156,627 |
|
Japanese yen |
-64,864 |
76,983 |
-51,657 |
-12,183 |
|
Swiss franc |
-42,387 |
24,245 |
22,720 |
22,117 |
|
US dollar index |
-53,158 |
14,003 |
-49,326 |
-47,239 |
|
Mexican Peso |
-140,414 |
39,901 |
28,686 |
29,982 |
|
Australian dollar |
-110,025 |
479 |
-49,161 |
-35,034 |
|
S&P 500 |
-77,473 |
73,398 |
-16,359 |
-13,823 |
|
T-note -10 yr |
-20,966 |
229,611 |
10,459 |
27,598 |
|
T-bond -30 yr |
-20,389 |
88,803 |
16,444 |
17,155 |
|
Eurodollar |
-408,407 |
1,126,194 |
826,425 |
781,355 |
|
Crude oil |
-319,669 |
-114,385 |
-172,152 |
-163,369 |
|
Heating oil |
-66,097 |
-4,204 |
-31,858 |
-21,995 |
|
RBOB Gasoline |
-84,937 |
-38,417 |
-71,286 |
-61,791 |
|
Natural gas |
108,160 |
228,910 |
137,370 |
139,385 |
|
Copper |
-36,201 |
14,419 |
7,834 |
10,383 |
|
Gold |
-287,634 |
-159,153 |
-161,843 |
-163,392 |
|
Platinum |
-35,249 |
-18,670 |
-21,919 |
-21,466 |
|
Silver |
-57,793 |
-14,132 |
-15,916 |
-14,132 |
Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...
Fundamentals
Fundamental corn outlook — Short-term bullish — Corn prices are in correction mode from recent losses sparked by USDA’s hike in its global production estimate to a record and its U.S. and global ending stocks estimates. Corn has underlying support from dry weather concerns in South America, record U.S. ethanol output, and tight U.S. and world corn supplies. The corn 2011-12 stocks/use ratios are very tight with the U.S. at 6.7% and the world at 14.6%.
Fundamental soybean outlook — Short-term bullish — Soybean prices remain bolstered on South American weather concerns. Prices had plunged to yearly lows after the USDA raised its global production and U.S and global ending stock estimates. Tight U.S. 2011-12 stocks/use ratio of 7.6% also may limit further declines. Global soybean supplies are adequate with the 2011-12 world stocks/use ratio near average at 24.8%.
Have a prosperous trading week!
To see my market views daily, you can follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/TrendsinFutures.
