Corn and soybeans before this week’s WASDE

Market Pulse: Jan 9, 2012

COT Data

On the Commercial Tracker you can see that in corn, commercials have now moved away from the 52-week net high of -36,487 (short) contracts from Dec. 23 and as of this past Friday are now net-short -81,679 contracts. You can see on the weekly chart below the much more transparent Disaggregated COT where Producers are net-short -350,004 contracts and Swap Dealers are net-long 268,325 contracts.

Looking at the weekly chart for soybeans, you can see commercials in the Legacy report are now net-short -11,900 contracts. On the Disaggregated report you can see that in actuality producers are net-short -134,209 contracts and Swap Dealers are net-long 122,309 contracts.

This coming Thursday, Jan. 12 the first World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE report) will be released. Be aware that many times this report sets the stage for grains through the winter. Have a prosperous trading week.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

6-Jan

30-Dec

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

5,543

894

1,400

Cattle (live)

-41,437

10,437

-17,545

-11,500

Hogs

-46,574

21,270

-11,144

-14,554

Corn

-413,915

-36,487

-81,679

-55,493

Oats

-7,738

83

-359

-559

Soybeans

-203,260

28,178

-11,900

-574

Soybean meal

-84,656

32,081

16,543

17,173

Soybean oil

-117,444

29,745

1,856

10,517

Wheat

-32,577

82,335

65,502

66,641

Orange juice

-22,341

-9,769

-14,529

-13,149

Coffee

-45,699

1,153

-2,412

185

Cocoa

-41,808

10,252

8,488

9,463

Sugar

-221,694

-25,626

-41,174

-25,626

Cotton

-46,785

-2,152

-16,267

-2,635

British pound

-66,435

88,682

47,751

41,338

Canada dollar

-115,190

25,942

18,500

19,201

Euro FX

-124,855

166,069

166,069

156,627

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-51,657

-12,183

Swiss franc

-42,387

24,245

22,720

22,117

US dollar index

-53,158

14,003

-49,326

-47,239

Mexican Peso

-140,414

39,901

28,686

29,982

Australian dollar

-110,025

479

-49,161

-35,034

S&P 500

-77,473

73,398

-16,359

-13,823

T-note -10 yr

-20,966

229,611

10,459

27,598

T-bond -30 yr

-20,389

88,803

16,444

17,155

Eurodollar

-408,407

1,126,194

826,425

781,355

Crude oil

-319,669

-114,385

-172,152

-163,369

Heating oil

-66,097

-4,204

-31,858

-21,995

RBOB Gasoline

-84,937

-38,417

-71,286

-61,791

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

137,370

139,385

Copper

-36,201

14,419

7,834

10,383

Gold

-287,634

-159,153

-161,843

-163,392

Platinum

-35,249

-18,670

-21,919

-21,466

Silver

-57,793

-14,132

-15,916

-14,132

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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