A year of COT data in review

Market Pulse: Jan 3, 2012

Happy New Year – 2012
Here is my 2011 review by the numbers.

Well 2012 is here and all of the “self-proclaimed experts” are coming out with all of their predictions. I have been watching this for decades. In case you have not learned yet, there is nobody out there who can predict the markets. They make their money selling you their “predictions.” If I had a true crystal ball that worked, I certainly would not sell it to anybody. Trading success comes from learning to ride momentum. So in this week’s Market Pulse I put together a look back at 2011 by the numbers. You will see a clear picture of when markets hit highs and lows, the week this happened, and you can see where “big money was posturing” for 2011 in the COT Legacy report for financials and the COT Disaggregated report for commodities. There is an old saying that you should know where you have been so you know where you are going. I think you will find this to be useful all year long. Let me know what you think.

Download the spreadsheet here .

I wish everyone a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year. To see my market views daily you can follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/TrendsinFutures.

COT Data

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

30-Dec

23-Dec

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

5,543

1,400

1,654

Cattle (live)

-41,437

10,437

-11,500

-12,648

Hogs

-46,574

21,270

-14,554

-22,204

Corn

-413,915

-36,487

-55,493

-36,487

Oats

-7,738

83

-559

83

Soybeans

-203,260

28,178

-574

6,204

Soybean meal

-84,656

32,081

17,173

26,360

Soybean oil

-117,444

29,745

10,517

23,112

Wheat

-32,577

82,335

66,641

76,261

Orange juice

-22,341

-9,769

-13,149

-13,018

Coffee

-45,699

1,153

185

1,153

Cocoa

-41,808

10,252

9,463

10,252

Sugar

-221,694

-25,626

-25,626

-26,087

Cotton

-46,785

-2,152

-2,635

-2,152

British pound

-66,435

88,682

41,338

39,464

Canada dollar

-115,190

25,942

19,201

-3,232

Euro FX

-124,855

156,627

156,627

143,119

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-12,183

-17,330

Swiss franc

-42,387

24,245

22,117

12,627

US dollar index

-53,158

14,003

-47,239

-48,691

Mexican Peso

-140,414

39,901

29,982

22,546

Australian dollar

-110,025

479

-35,034

-26,872

S&P 500

-77,473

73,398

-13,823

-11,239

T-note -10 yr

-20,966

229,611

27,598

33,685

T-bond -30 yr

-20,389

88,803

17,155

15,703

Eurodollar

-408,407

1,126,194

781,355

780,775

Crude oil

-319,669

-114,385

-163,369

-156,128

Heating oil

-66,097

-4,204

-21,995

-15,258

RBOB Gasoline

-85,987

-38,417

-61,791

-51,555

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

139,385

136,007

Copper

-36,201

14,419

10,383

11,372

Gold

-287,634

-159,153

-163,392

-164,554

Platinum

-35,249

-18,670

-21,466

-21,907

Silver

-57,793

-14,132

-14,132

-14,825

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

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