Oil dreaming of a bull market

I'm Dreaming of a Bull market!

I'm dreaming of a bull market, just like the crude I used to know.
Where Iran threatens, lead to bullish sessions
And buyers rake up all the dough.

Oil prices continue to push on as Iran threatens retaliation on the US after claiming that it shot down a US drone and the European Bond vigilantes may be pulling back in the aftermath of the flooding off the EU bank with liquidity and cheap dollars. Oil prices are rising as they anticipate even more liquidity as they price in a Eurozone interest rate cut and have hopes for a power lunch between Nicholas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel. Not to mention that fact that the US jobless rate fell last week. It is one of the many reasons last week I was singing “I'll be long till Christmas” or “You better watch out you better not cry, you better be long I'm telling you why.”

Drone? What drone? The Guardian reports the Iran's armed forces have shot down an unmanned US spy plane that violated Iranian airspace along its eastern border. An unidentified military official quoted by the official Iran news agency on Sunday warned of a crushing response to any violations of Iranian airspace by US drone aircraft. "An advanced RQ170 unmanned American spy plane was shot down by Iran's armed forces. It suffered minor damage and is now in possession of Iran's armed forces," Irna quoted the official as saying. No further details were given.

What are the Iranian's thinking with this latest claim and threat? Perhaps they are trying to take our minds off of their latest violation of International law with the storming of the British Embassy as they try to gain sympathy as the government that the US oppresses. The risk to oil is rising as the Iran government seems more and more delusional as the world closes in on them. Of course as Iran threatens to strike back at the US interests the price of oil hits the highest level since November. The good news is that the United Arab Emirates say that the pipeline to bypass the Straits of Hormuz is almost done...

European bond yields continue to drop in the aftermath of the global coordinated effort to shore up European banks as well as new austerity measures by the Italian government... While the move may not solve anything, it is still very bullish for oil and the markets are at the very least believing that this will buy the EU some time. Add to that lower interest rates and that sets the stage for another bull run in oil.

Let me make this perfectly clear. The Fed wants to be clearer as far as their intentions for interest rates in the future. Dow Jones says Federal Reserve officials are close to completing an overhaul of how they signal their policy plans to the public. They are likely to spend much of their Dec. 13 meeting ironing out unresolved pieces of the new communications strategy and seem on pace to unveil it early next year. They have two major objectives: Be more explicit about the Fed's goals for inflation and employment, and articulate more clearly the interest-rate strategy to meet those goals.

HO HO HO Dow Jones reports that a top Iranian oil official said Monday that both producers and consumers are happy with the current oil prices and that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will have to discuss demand in the first half of next year when it meets in Vienna on Dec. 14. "Everyone is happy with the oil price, not only Iran...producers and consumers," Muhammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's OPEC governor told Dow Jones Newswires. It is still unclear what members of OPEC should decide when they meet as "some have doubts over how fast Libya's oil production can be," Khatibi said."

Phil Flynn is senior energy analyst for PFGBest Research and a Fox Business Network contributor. He can be reached at (800) 935-6487 or at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.


Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome