Did you short corn when “Big Money” said it was time?

Market Pulse: Dec 5, 2011

COT Data

In the older COT legacy report, back on Sept. 9 Commercials had a net-short position of -295,685 contracts. Two months later on Nov. 11 they were net-short -201,699 contracts. Two weeks ago they dropped to -133,262 contracts net-short and in the most current report we see commercials net-short corn at a 52-week high of -78,847 contracts. Looking at the weekly chart and the new COT disaggregated report you can look deeper into big money movement and see how Producers (true commercials) are actually net-short -340,976 contracts with Swap Dealers net-long 262,129 contracts and Managed Money net-long 145,676 contracts. Look closely at the new report and you can see when Swap Dealers started liquidating their net-long position along with when Managed Money did the same. If you need help understanding how to use the new COT report I would be happy to send you my new book “What Lies Beneath All Trends”. Just shoot me an email at Gary@TrendsinFutures.com.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

2-Dec

28-Nov

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

5,543

826

387

Cattle (live)

-49,287

10,437

-29,801

-28,841

Hogs

-46,574

21,270

-35,594

-29,892

Corn

-413,915

-78,847

-78,847

-133,262

Oats

-7,738

-353

-353

-2,131

Soybeans

-203,260

28,178

24,414

28,178

Soybean meal

-84,656

28,729

28,729

27,915

Soybean oil

-117,444

29,745

29,745

25,167

Wheat

-32,577

82,335

76,415

82,335

Orange juice

-22,341

-9,769

-13,955

-13,603

Coffee

-45,699

-4,655

-7,782

-7,000

Cocoa

-41,808

7,633

7,633

5,947

Sugar

-221,694

-36,220

-36,220

-46,857

Cotton

-46,785

-2,761

-2,761

-7,213

British pound

-66,435

88,682

63,904

50,812

Canada dollar

-115,190

25,942

24,739

19,090

Euro FX

-124,855

137,842

137,842

118,334

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-35,347

-40,633

Swiss franc

-42,387

16,563

16,563

10,341

US dollar index

-53,158

14,003

-35,601

-32,162

Mexican Peso

-140,414

39,901

39,901

34,872

Australian dollar

-110,025

479

-7,741

-19,827

S&P 500

-88,893

73,398

-14,739

-6,589

T-note -10 yr

-8,493

229,611

-8,493

22,914

T-bond -30 yr

-20,389

88,803

15,730

12,885

Eurodollar

-408,407

1,126,194

1,126,194

1,125,435

Crude oil

-319,669

-114,385

-177,830

-177,463

Heating oil

-66,097

-4,204

-35,479

-40,393

RBOB Gasoline

-85,987

-38,417

-52,116

-54,967

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

154,335

154,624

Copper

-36,201

14,419

9,606

9,639

Gold

-287,634

-159,153

-193,545

-192,413

Platinum

-35,249

-18,670

-23,405

-23,596

Silver

-57,793

-18,774

-20,688

-21,731

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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