“Big money” started posturing for lower corn prices early September. If you were watching their movement, you would be short corn.
Last week March 2012 corn opened at 593¼ and closed the week at 595¼.
Looking at the daily chart you can see that the trend remains strong with ADX at 42, but has dropped from 50 this past week. MACD this past week has dropped divergence showing a drop in momentum to the current price action, and Stochastics are oversold. Trends in Futures recommended a short on Nov. 17, and currently is managing $1,400 in open trade equity.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
COT Data
In the older COT legacy report, back on Sept. 9 Commercials had a net-short position of -295,685 contracts. Two months later on Nov. 11 they were net-short -201,699 contracts. Two weeks ago they dropped to -133,262 contracts net-short and in the most current report we see commercials net-short corn at a 52-week high of -78,847 contracts. Looking at the weekly chart and the new COT disaggregated report you can look deeper into big money movement and see how Producers (true commercials) are actually net-short -340,976 contracts with Swap Dealers net-long 262,129 contracts and Managed Money net-long 145,676 contracts. Look closely at the new report and you can see when Swap Dealers started liquidating their net-long position along with when Managed Money did the same. If you need help understanding how to use the new COT report I would be happy to send you my new book “What Lies Beneath All Trends”. Just shoot me an email at Gary@TrendsinFutures.com.
|
Commodity |
12-mo low |
12-mo hi |
2-Dec |
28-Nov |
|
Cattle (feed) |
-1,290 |
5,543 |
826 |
387 |
|
Cattle (live) |
-49,287 |
10,437 |
-29,801 |
-28,841 |
|
Hogs |
-46,574 |
21,270 |
-35,594 |
-29,892 |
|
Corn |
-413,915 |
-78,847 |
-78,847 |
-133,262 |
|
Oats |
-7,738 |
-353 |
-353 |
-2,131 |
|
Soybeans |
-203,260 |
28,178 |
24,414 |
28,178 |
|
Soybean meal |
-84,656 |
28,729 |
28,729 |
27,915 |
|
Soybean oil |
-117,444 |
29,745 |
29,745 |
25,167 |
|
Wheat |
-32,577 |
82,335 |
76,415 |
82,335 |
|
Orange juice |
-22,341 |
-9,769 |
-13,955 |
-13,603 |
|
Coffee |
-45,699 |
-4,655 |
-7,782 |
-7,000 |
|
Cocoa |
-41,808 |
7,633 |
7,633 |
5,947 |
|
Sugar |
-221,694 |
-36,220 |
-36,220 |
-46,857 |
|
Cotton |
-46,785 |
-2,761 |
-2,761 |
-7,213 |
|
British pound |
-66,435 |
88,682 |
63,904 |
50,812 |
|
Canada dollar |
-115,190 |
25,942 |
24,739 |
19,090 |
|
Euro FX |
-124,855 |
137,842 |
137,842 |
118,334 |
|
Japanese yen |
-64,864 |
76,983 |
-35,347 |
-40,633 |
|
Swiss franc |
-42,387 |
16,563 |
16,563 |
10,341 |
|
US dollar index |
-53,158 |
14,003 |
-35,601 |
-32,162 |
|
Mexican Peso |
-140,414 |
39,901 |
39,901 |
34,872 |
|
Australian dollar |
-110,025 |
479 |
-7,741 |
-19,827 |
|
S&P 500 |
-88,893 |
73,398 |
-14,739 |
-6,589 |
|
T-note -10 yr |
-8,493 |
229,611 |
-8,493 |
22,914 |
|
T-bond -30 yr |
-20,389 |
88,803 |
15,730 |
12,885 |
|
Eurodollar |
-408,407 |
1,126,194 |
1,126,194 |
1,125,435 |
|
Crude oil |
-319,669 |
-114,385 |
-177,830 |
-177,463 |
|
Heating oil |
-66,097 |
-4,204 |
-35,479 |
-40,393 |
|
RBOB Gasoline |
-85,987 |
-38,417 |
-52,116 |
-54,967 |
|
Natural gas |
108,160 |
228,910 |
154,335 |
154,624 |
|
Copper |
-36,201 |
14,419 |
9,606 |
9,639 |
|
Gold |
-287,634 |
-159,153 |
-193,545 |
-192,413 |
|
Platinum |
-35,249 |
-18,670 |
-23,405 |
-23,596 |
|
Silver |
-57,793 |
-18,774 |
-20,688 |
-21,731 |
Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...
Fundamentals
Corn prices are holding modestly above October’s 11-month low.
Bearish factors include:
- The prediction from Morgan Stanley that increased South American exports may curb demand for and cut 2011-12 U.S corn exports to 1.45 billion bu., below USDA estimates of 1.6 billion and the fewest in 26 years.
- Concern that the European debt crisis will crimp global economic growth and demand for commodities.
- Reduced corn demand by livestock producers which increased U.S. corn inventories on Sept. 1 to 1.128 billion bu., higher than estimates of 942 million bu.
Bullish factors include:
- The action by the IGC to cut its 2011-12 global corn production forecast to 853 MMT from a forecast last month of 855 MMT.
- USDA’s Nov. 9 cut in its U.S. corn production estimate for this year to 12.310 billion bu from 12.433 billion bu. forecast in October as it reduced its yield estimate to an eight-year low of 146.7 bushels per acre.
- USDA’s cut in its 2012 U.S. ending stocks estimate to 843 million bu and the cut in its 2012 global ending stocks estimate to a five-year low of 121.57 MMT.
Weekly corn exports (week ended Nov. 24): 810.3 MT; 2011/12 (September-August) cumulative exports –13.8% y/y.
Fundamental outlook — Medium-term bearish — Corn prices are attempting to recover from slack foreign demand, increased South American exports, and technical selling with the breakdown from the month-long trading range. Corn still has underlying support, however, from tight supplies after the USDA recently cut its U.S production estimate and its global ending-stocks estimate. The corn 2011-12 stocks/ use ratios are very tight with the U.S. at 6.7% and the world at 14.0%.
Have a prosperous trading week.
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