Thursday afternoon was paralyzed… by anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. The morning’s break back under 1247.25 had reached its 1241.00 target, tried probing lower, but held. The balance of the session ranged back up to 1247.25.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
More notably, the entire session ranged around 1245.50.
1245.50 is the rally’s objective that held as resistance through Wednesday’s close to signal that buyers gained no traction for their effort. How absurd that might have sounded, when the Dow had gained 490 points since Tuesday’s close. But the session’s sponsorship morphed throughout the day. And those responsible for its last push up proved to be the later stage players.
At least the shallowness of Thursday’s pullback keeps alive optimism for probing yet higher. Or, for absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down after Friday morning’s Employment Situation report.
Friday’s session could still trend up into the weekend if a reaction up were not absorbed quickly enough — or, if a reaction down into negative territory were to maintain its recovery back into positive territory. The power of impending illiquidity can cut either way.
What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Since Thursday’s close was still essentially testing 1245.50, there is no predictability to the next trending attempt or reaction. We’ll look at parameters before the Market Tour.
Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.
Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.