Stocks Minor Cycle better, but Nov. 25 low fragile

Market Snapshot for session ending 11-29-11:

Market Overview – What We Know:

• Major indexes were mixed Tuesday with S&P 500 and Dow 30 up a bit and NASDAQ Composite and Value Line Index down a bit.
• S&P 500 would have to better 10-Day Price Channel at 1233.89 on Wednesday, but the PC BUY point drops to 1223.43 on Thursday and 1211.88 on Friday.
• Short-term trend remains as “Oversold” as at any time over past several years.
• To reassert Intermediate Cycle uptrend begun after October low (1074.77—S&P 500), S&P must better October 27 intraday high at 1292.66.
• Daily Most Actives Advance/Decline Line Ratio (MAAD) has stabilized with broad market and MAAD Daily Ratio remains deeply “Oversold.”
• Despite rally Monday, Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) remains noticeably weaker than market and could sink to new lows with little additional effort. CPFL Ratio was negative Monday by 1.027 to 1.
• Cumulative Volume (CV) in S&P 500 is about in synch with index pricing, but CV in S&P Emini continues to underperform.

Market Overview – What We Think:

• Short-term low (1158.66—S&P) was probably put in place last Friday with some possible “testing” of that low developing in sessions just ahead.
• What now remains to be seen is how much power a return rally will have. S&P 500 must move above October 27 intraday high at 1292.66 to re-assert larger Intermediate Cycle uptrend.
• Fact that S&P and other major indexes have given back substantial portion of rally since October lows should be cause for concern in bullish camp.
• Failure by prices or indicators or both would underscore potential for longer-term bearish outcome. Simply put, S&P 500 must surpass 1370.58 to re-assert bull trend begun in March 2009.
• With key indicators still lackluster, we can only continue to wonder at market’s longer-term upside prospects.

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