Stocks Minor Cycle better, but Nov. 25 low fragile

Market Snapshot for session ending 11-29-11:

 

Last

Day Change

%Change

S&P 500 Index

1195.19

+2.64

+.22%

Dow Jones Industrials

11555.63

+32.62

+.28%

NASDAQ Composite

2515.51

-11.83

-.47%

Value Line Arithmetic Index

2557.07

-4.03

-.16%

Minor Cycle
(Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks)
Neutral / Negative

Intermediate Cycle
(Medium trend lasting weeks to several months)
Neutral

Major Cycle
(Long-term trend lasting several months to years)
Positive / Neutral

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Major indexes were mixed Tuesday with S&P 500 and Dow 30 up a bit and NASDAQ Composite and Value Line Index down a bit.
  • S&P 500 would have to better 10-Day Price Channel at 1233.89 on Wednesday, but the PC BUY point drops to 1223.43 on Thursday and 1211.88 on Friday.
  • Short-term trend remains as “Oversold” as at any time over past several years.
  • To reassert Intermediate Cycle uptrend begun after October low (1074.77—S&P 500), S&P must better October 27 intraday high at 1292.66.
  • Daily Most Actives Advance/Decline Line Ratio (MAAD) has stabilized with broad market and MAAD Daily Ratio remains deeply “Oversold.”
  • Despite rally Monday, Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) remains noticeably weaker than market and could sink to new lows with little additional effort. CPFL Ratio was negative Monday by 1.027 to 1.
  • Cumulative Volume (CV) in S&P 500 is about in synch with index pricing, but CV in S&P Emini continues to underperform.
Index Daily/Weekly/Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly
11/28 11/29 11/30 12/1 12/2 12/2 12/31

S&P 500
Index

BUY
1251.75

BUY
1244.11

BUY
1233.89

BUY
1223.43

BUY
1211.88

SELL
1154.28

BUY
1337.19

Dow Jones
Industrials

BUY
12051.40

BUY
11999.40

BUY
11911.75

BUY
11820.94

BUY
11718.50

SELL
11038.44

BUY
12488.49

NASDAQ
Composite

BUY
2661.42

BUY
2637.09

BUY
2614.62

BUY
2590.07

BUY
2563.81

BUY
2639.20

BUY
2824.47

Value Line
Index

BUY
2714.00

BUY
2696.35

BUY
2671.55

BUY
2645.20

BUY
2613.81

SELL
2451.94

BUY
3062.69

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • Short-term low (1158.66—S&P) was probably put in place last Friday with some possible “testing” of that low developing in sessions just ahead.
  • What now remains to be seen is how much power a return rally will have. S&P 500 must move above October 27 intraday high at 1292.66 to re-assert larger Intermediate Cycle uptrend.
  • Fact that S&P and other major indexes have given back substantial portion of rally since October lows should be cause for concern in bullish camp.
  • Failure by prices or indicators or both would underscore potential for longer-term bearish outcome. Simply put, S&P 500 must surpass 1370.58 to re-assert bull trend begun in March 2009.
  • With key indicators still lackluster, we can only continue to wonder at market’s longer-term upside prospects.

Click charts to enlarge

Next page: Indicator review

Page 1 of 2 >>
Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome