Market Snapshot for session ending 11-28-11:
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change | |
|
S&P 500 Index |
1192.55 |
+33.88 |
+2.92% |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
11523.01 |
+291.22 |
+2.59% |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
2527.34 |
+85.75 |
+3.51% |
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
2561.10 |
+97.56 |
+3.96% |
|
Minor Cycle |
Intermediate Cycle |
Major Cycle |
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Sharp post holiday rally lifted S&P 500 33.88 points Monday, but strength was still within context of short-term negative trend.
- S&P 500 came close to tapping lower edge of 10-Week Price Channel (1154.28) with an intraday low bid of 1158.67.
- Short-term trend is as “Oversold” as at any time over past several years.
- To reassert Intermediate Cycle uptrend begun after October low (1074.77—S&P 500), S&P would have to better October 27 intraday high at 1292.66.
- Daily Most Actives Advance/Decline Line Ratio (MAAD) remains in deeply “Oversold” territory on the short-term cycle.
- Despite rally Monday, Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) remains remarkably weaker than market and could sink to new lows with little additional effort. CPFL Ratio was negative Monday by 1.027 to 1.
| Index | Daily/Weekly/Monthly Stops | Weekly | Monthly | ||||
| 11/28 | 11/29 | 11/30 | 12/1 | 12/2 | 12/2 | 12/31 | |
|
S&P 500 |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
SELL |
BUY |
|
Dow Jones |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
SELL |
BUY |
|
NASDAQ |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
|
Value Line |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
SELL |
BUY |
Market Overview – What We Think:
- Short-term low (1158.66—S&P) was probably put in place last Friday with some possible “testing” of that low developing in sessions just ahead.
- What now remains to be seen is how much power a return rally will have. S&P 500 must move above October 27 intraday high at 1292.66 to re-assert larger Intermediate Cycle uptrend.
- Also, fact that S&P and other major indexes have given back substantial of rally since October lows should be cause for concern in bullish camp.
- Failure by prices or indicators or both would underscore potential for longer-term bearish outcome. Simply put, S&P 500 must surpass 1370.58 to re-assert bull trend begun in March 2009.
- With key indicators still lackluster, we can only continue to wonder at market’s longer-term upside prospects since lack of indicator confirmation has never favored bullish case on historical basis.
Click charts to enlarge
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
Click charts to enlarge
MAAD data for past 30 days* CPFL data for past 30 Days
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
10-17-11 |
4 |
16 |
10-17-11 |
36424 |
91068 |
|
10-18-11 |
19 |
0 |
10-18-11 |
130270 |
49629 |
|
10-19-11 |
3 |
17 |
10-19-11 |
106601 |
55205 |
|
10-20-11 |
12 |
8 |
10-20-11 |
51476 |
61401 |
|
10-21-11 |
18 |
2 |
10-21-11 |
173325 |
55947 |
|
10-24-11 |
19 |
1 |
10-24-11 |
50710 |
46919 |
|
10-25-11 |
3 |
17 |
10-25-11 |
124067 |
80552 |
|
10-26-11 |
13 |
7 |
10-26-11 |
72081 |
29996 |
|
10-27-11 |
19 |
1 |
10-27-11 |
142603 |
59767 |
|
10-28-11 |
6 |
14 |
10-28-11 |
34594 |
24620 |
|
10-31-11 |
0 |
20 |
10-31-11 |
43610 |
89613 |
|
11-1-11 |
1 |
19 |
11-1-11 |
65099 |
185340 |
|
11-2-11 |
18 |
2 |
11-2-11 |
19282 |
66752 |
|
11-3-11 |
17 |
3 |
11-3-11 |
58753 |
44608 |
|
11-4-11 |
3 |
17 |
11-4-11 |
38211 |
34645 |
|
11-7-11 |
13 |
5 |
11-7-11 |
31456 |
27790 |
|
11-8-11 |
19 |
1 |
11-8-11 |
87594 |
30011 |
|
11-9-11 |
0 |
20 |
11-9-11 |
50087 |
143660 |
|
11-10-11 |
13 |
7 |
11-10-11 |
24105 |
43884 |
|
11-11-11 |
20 |
0 |
11-11-11 |
52598 |
38302 |
|
11-14-11 |
1 |
19 |
11-14-11 |
37003 |
34954 |
|
11-15-11 |
16 |
4 |
11-15-11 |
79018 |
43948 |
|
11-16-11 |
2 |
18 |
11-16-11 |
44628 |
69306 |
|
11-17-11 |
1 |
19 |
11-17-11 |
52761 |
114702 |
|
11-18-11 |
7 |
13 |
11-18-11 |
130876 |
295014 |
|
11-21-11 |
1 |
19 |
11-21-11 |
55671 |
66625 |
|
11-22-11 |
6 |
14 |
11-22-11 |
22015 |
49828 |
|
11-23-11 |
0 |
20 |
11-23-11 |
44074 |
123726 |
|
11-25-11 |
8 |
11 |
11-25-11 |
15589 |
37864 |
|
11-28-11 |
20 |
0 |
11-28-11 |
26221 |
26948 |
*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.
Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He is a member of the Market Technicians Association and can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.
If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article.
