Oil gaining support from overseas worries

Consumer Confidence?

The market awaits the latest reading on consumer confidence but what is the point. The US consumer is showing their confidence with the wild Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending spree. It appears that the US consumers are able to ignore the worries in Europe and the rest of the world, giving incredible upside momentum in the petroleum complex. It is obvious that the US consumer is feeling better about our economic outlook, or at the very least they just need to get out and spend. So instead of worrying about Europe and looking to the developing world, perhaps the world will once again look to the American consumer to once again bail out the global economy. Ahh just like the old days.

Of course oil is also gaining support from overseas worries. Despite the reports of a natural gas pipeline explosion in Egypt the truth is the election in Egypt seemed to be rather calm.

The Global Warming Conference in URBAN, South Africa is not going all that well. According to the USA Today, the conference is warning that global warming already is causing suffering and conflict in Africa, from drought in Sudan and Somalia to flooding in South Africa according to President Jacob Zuma and he urged delegates at an international climate conference to look beyond national interests for solutions.

Yet there is word that Canada is not interested in what this conference is trying to sell. There are reports that Canada is looking to drop out of the Kyoto Treaty. Reuters News reports, "Canada dismissed the Kyoto Protocol on climate change on Monday as a thing of the past, but declined to confirm a media report it will formally pull out of the international treaty before the end of this year.

Although the Conservative government walked away from its Kyoto obligations years ago, a formal withdrawal would deal a symbolic blow to global talks to save the agreement, which opened in Durban, South Africa on Monday. Canada says it backs a new global deal to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, but insists it has to cover all nations, including China and India, which are not bound by Kyoto's current targets. Although Japan and Russia share Canada's view, and the United States never ratified Kyoto, no nation has yet formally renounced the treaty. "Kyoto is the past," Environment Minister Peter Kent told reporters in Ottawa, describing the decision by Canada's previous Liberal government to sign on to the protocol as "one of the biggest blunders they made."

"The Conservatives — who green groups say are recklessly pushing development of the Alberta oil sands and ignoring the environment — complain the Liberals signed Kyoto and then did nothing to stop the country's emissions from soaring. "What we know is that we cannot comply with it ... that's a fact," Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver told reporters. Well the good news is that the world is actually getting cooler. According to the World Meteorological Organization, "The global average temperature in 2011 was down from the record high hit in 2010 due to it being a La Nina year, which has a cooling influence. Speaking on the sidelines of the United Nations-sponsored COP17 climate change talks, the UN weather group said 2011, still with one month left, was the tenth warmest year on record. While the temperature was down from 2010, the WMO said it was higher than previous La Nina years. Global climate in 2011 was heavily influenced by the strong La Nina event which developed in the tropical Pacific in the second half of 2010 and continued until May 2011, the WMO said. La Nina is a periodic climatic phenomenon that brings more rain to the western pacific and which devastated the production of agricultural crops in Australia, South America and the U.S. late last year. La Nina was also associated with the drought in east Africa, islands in the central equatorial Pacific, and the southern United States, WMO said. Surface air temperatures were higher than the long-term average in 2011 over most land areas of the world, WMO said. The largest deviation from average temperatures took place in Russia, especially in the north, where January-October temperatures were around 4 degrees Centigrade above average in some places."

Phil Flynn is senior energy analyst for PFGBest Research and a Fox Business Network contributor. He can be reached at (800) 935-6487 or at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

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