Oil bullish on supply report despite EU uncertainty

US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.3 million barrels per day during the week ending November 4, 358 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 82.6 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.8 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.3 million barrels per day. US crude oil imports averaged 8.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 336 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.7 million barrels per day, 34 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 750 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 102 thousand barrels per day last week. U.S.

Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 338.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week and are in the middle limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 6.0 million barrels last week and are in the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 15.3 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period have averaged just under 19.0 million barrels per day, down by 1.3 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied has averaged about 8.6 million barrels per day, down by 5.6 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied has averaged nearly 4.3 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 3.9 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is 6.6 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

While demand for distillates is strong, news out of China is raising some demand concerns. Bloomberg News reported that, "China’s exports rose at the slowest pace in almost two years in October as Europe’s deepening debt crisis crimped demand, adding pressure on policy makers to support growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. Overseas shipments rose 15.9% from a year earlier, customs bureau data showed today. The trade surplus was $17 billion, lower than all 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports climbed a more-than-forecast 28.7 percent.”

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About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

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