At the end of the day, it’s time to start realizing the market for what it is. It keeps trying to go down and just when it appears to totally unravel, it doesn’t. It’s the same kind of condition we saw in 2003-05. At least this time people have a right to worry about it. In the 2003-05 market every correction looked choppy. Those pullbacks looked like corrections yet bears were expecting a return to the 2002 bottom just because they were conditioned that it would. The best calculations for a bottom and end to the bear phase of 2011 are on the Russell. But bottoms are a process and we are not out of the woods yet. But we are very close. This should be the week that tells us one way or the other. If in a week we are sitting here with China turning up, chances go up exponentially that the lows of 2011 are already in place. But in our chart of the week you can see the Greenback failing at the 77 handle, the area it needed to hold in order to flip longer term resistance into support. It’s not happening.
Click chart to enlarge
Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.
Lucas Wave International (https://www.lucaswaveinternational.com) provides forecasts of financial markets via the Fibonacci Forecaster and other reports. The company provides coaching/seminars to teach traders around the world about this cutting edge methodology.