Market Snapshot for session ending 10-19-11:
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change | |
|
S&P 500 Index |
1209.88 |
-15.50 |
-1.26% |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
11504.62 |
-72.42 |
-.63% |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
2604.04 |
-53.38 |
-2.01% |
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
2575.05 |
-46.84 |
-1.79% |
|
Minor Cycle |
Intermediate Cycle |
Major Cycle |
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Market succumbed, yet again, to profit taking Wednesday with S&P 500 prices stalling in face of 200-day exponential moving average now acting as resistance (1234.13).
- Trading volume in S&P 500 diminished by just under 11%.
- Minor Cycle statistics remain extremely “Overbought” as measured by short-term Momentum and our two proprietary Trading Oscillators. But in new trend “Overbought” readings can persist.
- CPFL was positive Tuesday by 1.93 to 1 on heels of Monday’s new Intermediate Cycle low.
- MAAD was negative Wednesday with 3 issues higher and 17 negative. MAAD was last within about 25 issues of penetrating downtrend line stretching back to March 3 indicator high, but still decidedly below actual March high.
- Cumulative Volume in both S&P 500 and S&P Emini futures contract remains weaker than S&P pricing.
- Major Cycle Momentum remains marginally negative in all of major indexes.
Market Overview – What We Think:
- Intermediate Cycle continues to hold toward “Oversold” territory while offering upside potential.
- “Overbought” short-term statistics could result in corrective action within context of developing Intermediate Cycle positive.
- Intermediate Cycle at 1232.07 holds for rest of week. S&P slightly fractured that level on Tuesday via strength to 1233.10 before pulling back.
- Break above Price Channel would go a long way toward corroborating Intermediate Cycle positive.
- Significant overhead looms from 1255 in S&P 500 up to May intermediate high at 1370.58.
- Fact that Cumulative Volume remains weaker than prices (S&P 500 and S&P Emini futures contract) is suggestion market internals remain tentative.
Click charts to enlarge
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
Click charts to enlarge
MAAD data for past 30 days* CPFL data for past 30 Days
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
9-8-11 |
3 |
17 |
9-8-11 |
22064 |
52542 |
|
9-9-11 |
1 |
18 |
9-9-11 |
40071 |
124636 |
|
9-12-11 |
11 |
9 |
9-12-11 |
55845 |
77322 |
|
9-13-11 |
14 |
5 |
9-13-11 |
52584 |
63492 |
|
9-14-11 |
17 |
3 |
9-14-11 |
80682 |
68721 |
|
9-15-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-15-11 |
105735 |
29793 |
|
9-16-11 |
10 |
10 |
9-16-11 |
201966 |
76148 |
|
9-19-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-19-11 |
41680 |
45169 |
|
9-20-11 |
5 |
15 |
9-20-11 |
28947 |
52027 |
|
9-21-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-21-11 |
16580 |
56439 |
|
9-22-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-22-11 |
43737 |
189046 |
|
9-23-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-23-11 |
36209 |
75962 |
|
9-26-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-26-11 |
38003 |
64487 |
|
9-27-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-27-11 |
61643 |
101582 |
|
9-28-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-28-11 |
17255 |
67111 |
|
9-29-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-29-11 |
40247 |
64690 |
|
9-30-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-30-11 |
29615 |
157176 |
|
10-3-11 |
1 |
19 |
10-3-11 |
31140 |
119159 |
|
10-4-11 |
17 |
3 |
10-4-11 |
135619 |
162696 |
|
10-5-11 |
18 |
1 |
10-5-11 |
62550 |
58171 |
|
10-6-11 |
19 |
1 |
10-6-11 |
51849 |
35141 |
|
10-7-11 |
5 |
15 |
10-7-11 |
41682 |
84455 |
|
10-10-11 |
18 |
2 |
10-10-11 |
74206 |
70175 |
|
10-11-11 |
14 |
4 |
10-11-11 |
38343 |
54933 |
|
10-12-11 |
18 |
2 |
10-12-11 |
93491 |
99714 |
|
10-13-11 |
9 |
11 |
10-13-11 |
60516 |
60107 |
|
10-14-11 |
19 |
1 |
10-14-11 |
46075 |
28543 |
|
10-17-11 |
4 |
16 |
10-17-11 |
36424 |
91068 |
|
10-18-11 |
19 |
0 |
10-18-11 |
130270 |
49629 |
|
10-19-11 |
3 |
17 |
10-19-11 |
106601 |
55205 |
*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.
Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He is a member of the Market Technicians Association and can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.
If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article.
