How do you trade the S&P 500 after Germany says no to a quick fix?

Market Pulse: Oct 17, 2011

COT Data

On this past Friday’s COT report we found commercials net-long 250,361 contracts and the previous Friday, Oct. 3, the commercials were net-long 211,329. That’s 39,000 contracts up. This definitely helped the market climb last week.

Everyone had high hopes this weekend as the G-20 requested a plan for Europe dealing with the debt problems and they gave them a deadline of Oct. 23. Well, Germany responded to this today saying no to a plan by Oct. 23 has the market dropping. How many times have we seen the markets up and down over the EU debt crisis? One day it is fixed, the next day it is still broken with no end in sight. Even optimism for Q3 earnings can’t compete against an EU collapse.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

14-Oct

7-Oct

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

7,100

769

753

Cattle (live)

-65,086

10,437

-30,487

-24,069

Hogs

-35,864

21,270

-21,995

-14,279

Corn

-413,915

-137,471

-137,471

-176,078

Oats

-7,738

-1,920

-2,251

-1,920

Soybeans

-203,260

-47,513

-65,027

-72,834

Soybean meal

-84,656

5,962

5,962

-1,204

Soybean oil

-117,444

18,335

18,335

9,376

Wheat

-32,577

72,824

72,824

67,848

Orange juice

-22,341

-9,769

-9,884

-9,769

Coffee

-45,699

-6,067

-8,049

-11,151

Cocoa

-41,808

7,729

2,063

5,805

Sugar

-221,694

-92,181

-97,501

-92,181

Cotton

-49,331

-18,697

-20,065

-18,697

British pound

-66,435

88,682

82,204

88,682

Canada dollar

-115,190

25,942

25,942

11,024

Euro FX

-124,855

109,202

100,555

109,202

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-32,122

-39,462

Swiss franc

-42,387

2,403

2,403

-26

US dollar index

-53,158

14,003

-53,158

-49,496

Mexican Peso

-140,414

28,834

28,570

28,834

Australian dollar

-110,025

479

479

-2,706

S&P 500

-88,893

73,398

18,221

21,740

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

229,611

216,140

121,113

T-bond -30 yr

-29,204

88,803

20,198

27,621

Eurodollar

-1,001,804

458,230

452,362

287,735

Crude oil

-319,669

-114,385

-120,565

-114,385

Heating oil

-66,097

-4,204

-10,855

-4,204

RBOB Gasoline

-85,987

-38,417

-50,259

-41,411

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

148,428

145,116

Copper

-36,201

14,419

14,419

9,323

Gold

-293,082

-164,751

-168,478

-164,751

Platinum

-35,249

-18,670

-22,107

-23,059

Silver

-58,150

-18,923

-20,828

-18,923

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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