Market Snapshot for session ending 10-13-11:
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change | |
|
S&P 500 Index |
1203.66 |
-3.59 |
-.30% |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
11478.13 |
-40.71 |
-.35% |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
2620.24 |
+15.51 |
+.60% |
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
2586.26 |
-4.30 |
-.17% |
|
Minor Cycle |
Intermediate Cycle |
Major Cycle |
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Equity prices stalled for second session in row Thursday and marginally below first resistance (1230.71) at August 31 intraday high and defined trendline (1213) connecting with the September 20 intraday high (1220.39).
- Trading volume in S&P 500 backed off just over 17% with Cumulative Volume in S&P 500 and S&P Emini remaining somewhat weaker than prices.
- Intermediate Cycle Price Channel high (1241.71) in S&P 500 looms just ahead at level which can act as statistical resistance.
- Short-term Momentum and our proprietary Trading Oscillators remain positive, but all are toward “Overbought” territory on Minor Cycle.
- Intermediate Cycle remains “Oversold” and in zone of opportunity.
- Major Cycle Momentum remains marginally negative in all of major indexes.
- Daily MAAD was marginally negative Thursday with 9 issues up and 11 down.
- CPFL was fractionally positive Thursday and holding just above new Intermediate Cycle low made Wednesday with Daily CPFL Ratio positive by 1.006 to 1.
Market Overview – What We Think:
- “Oversold” Intermediate Cycle continues to underscore upside potential, but there must be positive follow-through above downtrend line (1213) connecting late August and September highs (1230.71 and 1220.39), or recent strength could prove to be yet another aborted rally.
- With significant resistance looming from 1255 in S&P 500 up to May high (1370.58), market could continue to face major resistance.
- Fact that Cumulative Volume remains weaker than prices could be sign market internals remain weaker than market pricing.
- And fact that CPFL remains weak is further evidence market sentiment, as measured by activity of options players, is still poor.
- If Intermediate Cycle gains upside traction, strength will depend on market’s ability to overcome and absorb resistance as intermediate “Oversold” conditions are eliminated.
Click charts to enlarge
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
Click charts to enlarge
MAAD data for past 30 days* CPFL data for past 30 Days
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
9-1-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-1-11 |
22993 |
85196 |
|
9-2-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-2-11 |
40576 |
99268 |
|
9-6-11 |
3 |
16 |
9-6-11 |
52088 |
82703 |
|
9-7-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-7-11 |
59474 |
60854 |
|
9-8-11 |
3 |
17 |
9-8-11 |
22064 |
52542 |
|
9-9-11 |
1 |
18 |
9-9-11 |
40071 |
124636 |
|
9-12-11 |
11 |
9 |
9-12-11 |
55845 |
77322 |
|
9-13-11 |
14 |
5 |
9-13-11 |
52584 |
63492 |
|
9-14-11 |
17 |
3 |
9-14-11 |
80682 |
68721 |
|
9-15-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-15-11 |
105735 |
29793 |
|
9-16-11 |
10 |
10 |
9-16-11 |
201966 |
76148 |
|
9-19-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-19-11 |
41680 |
45169 |
|
9-20-11 |
5 |
15 |
9-20-11 |
28947 |
52027 |
|
9-21-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-21-11 |
16580 |
56439 |
|
9-22-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-22-11 |
43737 |
189046 |
|
9-23-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-23-11 |
36209 |
75962 |
|
9-26-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-26-11 |
38003 |
64487 |
|
9-27-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-27-11 |
61643 |
101582 |
|
9-28-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-28-11 |
17255 |
67111 |
|
9-29-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-29-11 |
40247 |
64690 |
|
9-30-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-30-11 |
29615 |
157176 |
|
10-3-11 |
1 |
19 |
10-3-11 |
31140 |
119159 |
|
10-4-11 |
17 |
3 |
10-4-11 |
135619 |
162696 |
|
10-5-11 |
18 |
1 |
10-5-11 |
62550 |
58171 |
|
10-6-11 |
19 |
1 |
10-6-11 |
51849 |
35141 |
|
10-7-11 |
5 |
15 |
10-7-11 |
41682 |
84455 |
|
10-10-11 |
18 |
2 |
10-10-11 |
74206 |
70175 |
|
10-11-11 |
14 |
4 |
10-11-11 |
38343 |
54933 |
|
10-12-11 |
18 |
2 |
10-12-11 |
93491 |
99714 |
|
10-13-11 |
9 |
11 |
10-13-11 |
60516 |
60107 |
*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.
Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He is a member of the Market Technicians Association and can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.
If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article.
