1222.00, or not 1222.00? That is the question… Two consecutive closes Monday and Tuesday above the 1182.25 objective put into play the 1222.00 objective. Not closing Tuesday above Monday’s high undermined the rally’s momentum, if not its objective. This concern seemed moot when Wednesday’s gap up to new highs extended higher.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
It’s not just whether 1222.00 will be met before retesting prior lows. But whether this leg now underway will reach 1222.00 before experiencing its own correction, or reversal. The afternoon’s 1215.00 bias-up target fulfilled a lot of buying pressure, judging by its reaction down to 1203.50 into the cash session close.
Its extension down to 1196.50 into the futures close went further, threatening to reverse momentum down. The afternoon’s session high was already rejected by the cash session closing back under the morning’s high, and under the noon hour ’s low. This robbed the rally of its momentum, forming the basis of a trend change.
But the morning’s low held, so a trend change signal still needs a lower close Thursday. Probing fresh highs Thursday without gapping up would be likely to hold, and to reverse down, presumably from testing 1222.00.
What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Freshman 10 Workshop Thursday… Whether new to the service, or seasoned, you are welcome to join me in the chartroom Thursday eventing at 6pm ET for an introductory workshop.
Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.
Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.