Market Snapshot for session ending 10-12-11:
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change | |
|
S&P 500 Index |
1207.25 |
+11.71 |
+.98% |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
11518.85 |
+102.55 |
+.90% |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
2604.73 |
+21.70 |
+.84% |
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
2590.56 |
+41.57 |
+1.63% |
|
Minor Cycle |
Intermediate Cycle |
Major Cycle |
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Intermediate Cycle gained further credence with strength Wednesday as trading volume in S&P 500 increased by 22%.
- Cumulative Volume in S&P 500 and S&P Emini has improved with prices over past several days, but remains weaker than pricing on relative basis.
- Intermediate Cycle Price Channel high (1241.71) in S&P 500 looms just ahead and could also act as statistical resistance.
- Via intraday high Wednesday S&P 500 moved up through defined trendline (1214) connecting August 31 and September 20 intraday highs (1230.71 and 1220.39).
- Short-term Momentum and our proprietary Trading Oscillators remain positive, but all are toward “Overbought” territory on Minor Cycle.
- Intermediate Cycle remains “Oversold” and in zone of opportunity.
- Major Cycle Momentum remains marginally negative in all of major indexes.
- Daily MAAD was positive again Wednesday with 18 issues higher and 2 negative. Indicator remains below defined downtrend line stretching back to early March statistical high on daily cycle.
- CPFL was negative again Wednesday and indicator declined to new Intermediate Cycle low with negative Daily CPFL Ratio of 1.06 to 1.
Market Overview – What We Think:
- “Oversold” Intermediate Cycle continued to underscore upside potential with further gains Wednesday toward Intermediate Cycle Price Channel high (1241.71). If that level is broken on upside, and even though short-term trend could be subject to profit-taking, additional gains could develop over next several weeks.
- But with significant resistance looming from 1255 up to May high in S&P 500 at 1370.58, while Intermediate Cycle could improve, market could fail in face of major resistance.
- Fact that Cumulative Volume remains weaker than prices could be sign market internals remain weaker than market looks.
- Additional fact that CPFL made another new low Wednesday is further evidence that market sentiment, as measured by activity of options players, is still poor.
- If Intermediate Cycle gains positive traction, strength will depend on market’s ability to overcome and absorb resistance as intermediate “Oversold” conditions are eliminated.
Click charts to enlarge
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
Click charts to enlarge
MAAD data for past 30 days* CPFL data for past 30 Days
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
8-31-11 |
13 |
6 |
8-31-11 |
32768 |
84508 |
|
9-1-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-1-11 |
22993 |
85196 |
|
9-2-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-2-11 |
40576 |
99268 |
|
9-6-11 |
3 |
16 |
9-6-11 |
52088 |
82703 |
|
9-7-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-7-11 |
59474 |
60854 |
|
9-8-11 |
3 |
17 |
9-8-11 |
22064 |
52542 |
|
9-9-11 |
1 |
18 |
9-9-11 |
40071 |
124636 |
|
9-12-11 |
11 |
9 |
9-12-11 |
55845 |
77322 |
|
9-13-11 |
14 |
5 |
9-13-11 |
52584 |
63492 |
|
9-14-11 |
17 |
3 |
9-14-11 |
80682 |
68721 |
|
9-15-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-15-11 |
105735 |
29793 |
|
9-16-11 |
10 |
10 |
9-16-11 |
201966 |
76148 |
|
9-19-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-19-11 |
41680 |
45169 |
|
9-20-11 |
5 |
15 |
9-20-11 |
28947 |
52027 |
|
9-21-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-21-11 |
16580 |
56439 |
|
9-22-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-22-11 |
43737 |
189046 |
|
9-23-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-23-11 |
36209 |
75962 |
|
9-26-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-26-11 |
38003 |
64487 |
|
9-27-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-27-11 |
61643 |
101582 |
|
9-28-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-28-11 |
17255 |
67111 |
|
9-29-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-29-11 |
40247 |
64690 |
|
9-30-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-30-11 |
29615 |
157176 |
|
10-3-11 |
1 |
19 |
10-3-11 |
31140 |
119159 |
|
10-4-11 |
17 |
3 |
10-4-11 |
135619 |
162696 |
|
10-5-11 |
18 |
1 |
10-5-11 |
62550 |
58171 |
|
10-6-11 |
19 |
1 |
10-6-11 |
51849 |
35141 |
|
10-7-11 |
5 |
15 |
10-7-11 |
41682 |
84455 |
|
10-10-11 |
18 |
2 |
10-10-11 |
74206 |
70175 |
|
10-11-11 |
14 |
4 |
10-11-11 |
38343 |
54933 |
|
10-12-11 |
18 |
2 |
10-12-11 |
93491 |
99714 |
*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.
Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He is a member of the Market Technicians Association and can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.
If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article.
